Here We Go Again With AVT

What can I tell you? It has been a love-hate relationship with Avnet Inc (AVT).

Looking back at the notes of July 18, 2011, we saw continuing deterioration of AVT's price (then at 28.91). Soon after that date, on August 9 to be exact, AVT saw a new 52 week low at 23.69.

With good support at 25.00, it crossed above the 50 day moving average and had solid gains in the last four sessions despite an erratic and uncertain market behavior.

I am tempted to consider AVT a buy on a pullback between 26.25 and 27.50.
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PWER Keeps on Drawing Attention

This morning we received another write-up about PWER, this time from seekingalpha.com:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269969-short-squeeze-ideas-9-highly-shorted-cash-rich-stocks-with-institutional-buying?source=yahoo

Professional stock researchers and investors are taking positions in this stock.
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It is Not Lights Out for PWER

PWER has been trading below its 50 and 200 day moving averages since 2/4/11, thus missing the ride up that the market has enjoyed. During this period, the technology sector has been lagging and oil prices have skyrocketed.
Again, eyes are turning to alternative energy. A cycle we have witnessed in the past.

Power-One, Inc. (PWER) designs, manufactures, and markets power conversion and power management solutions for the renewable energy, communications infrastructure, and other high technology markets.

PWER's chart pattern begins to look attractive and if, in the next week or so, it breaks and closes above the 50 dma at 8.27 (8.21 at the close of 4/28/11), it could take us to the 10.50 level within 3 months.

Now, this prospect is somewhat risky since there are sizeable short positions in the stock. As a contrarian investor, I am expecting a two stage surge in the stock price and a "short squeeze".

With a volume of 4.7 million shares in daily trading , a chart pattern at a crossroads and the connection to the alternative energy sector, I would consider PWER a candidate to place some bets with risk capital.
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CEPH Receives a Hostile Bid

Had my eye on this one (CEPH) since November '09. Kept it in my watch list into February '10. Pulled the trigger on November 24, '10 at 64.10.
Today, CEPH received a hostile bid from Valeant for 73.00 per share. With a trading price of about 75.20, it is a good time to exit.

Sure, hostile takeovers may attract other suitors and higher bids... but then, the deal could fall apart.

Sudden spikes concern me and, with gains of 17.30% in four months, I would not hesitate to cash in.
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Ooooops! CSCO Takes a Dive

For the third time in six months, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) has gapped down in a significant way coupled with huge trading volumes.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry worldwide.

Again, some Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock, citing concerns about higher competition and lower margins.

My belief is that the selling is overdone and that CSCO is not going away. Trading this morning at 19.17, closing in on a short-term support at 19.00; this could be an oportunity to get in at a good level.

Obviously, CSCO has shown to be very volatile and out of favor; with a contrarian view I am inclined to call this one a buy candidate.
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Bouncing Back

It is still early but we may have been right on our call of August 12, 2010. The S&P500 index held its ground at around the 1050 level (closed at 1047.22 on 8/26/10) and since then, in nearly four weeks, it has gained about 6% from those lows.

Technically, I could see a continuation of the uptrend for at least the next quarter. This may be a good time to pick up some bargains.
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...and the beat goes on

Yesterday, we experienced a tremendous beating of most of the markets and individual stocks. This morning, we expect that the downtrend to continue in a significant manner, at least for the early part of the trading day.

If the S&P 500 Index closes today below the 50 day moving average at 1087, then the downward momentum will continue with the next support level at 1023, that would represent an additional 6% drop in the index.

Should the index retreat reach near the 1050 level and bounce back in the next two weeks, then we can view the chart as having formed a reverse "head and shoulders pattern". In that case, it may be a good time to go bottom fishing for some bargains. These are the times when we position our funds for future profits.
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BINGO! AKAM Gives Us Something to Smile About

On good earnings report, Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) has gained about 15% in today's early trades.
Back on 2/25/09 I liked AKAM at 18.23, today we see a huge pop and trading at 38.25 (a 110% return in 14 months).
My rule is: too high + too fast = cash-in.
I say take profits and look for other oportunities.
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UNH - A Health Care Play

Trying to figure out the future of health care in the U.S. is beyond me. I am not keen to the idea of politicians trying to fix anything, regardless of party affiliation. Hopefully, something good will come out of the proposals now on the table.

Meanwhile, many of the insurers, pharmas and health care facilities have been beaten down for the past two years. There is a chance that in the future their recovery will materialize.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) is showing signs of life. UNH provides health care services in the United States.

Positives are:

•Fair chart pattern.
•Support at the 23.50 level.
•Average daily volume of over 12.5 million shares.
•Healthy fund ownership.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 8.

Trading this morning at 26.11, I expect UNH to bounce up and cross the 50 dma (now at 27) in the next few weeks, if so, the next resistance level would be at 30.
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Time to Move Out of KBR

Written up on October 7, 2008 and again on January 29, 2009 with prices at 15.28 and 15.43 respectively, KBR Inc. had a tremendous run and after yesterday's drop of 1.41 (down 5.87%) we may have heard a wake up call to take profits.

This retreat clearly marked a break down below the 50 day moving average with a weak support at 21.50.

After gaining approximately 47.25% over a period of less than one year and selling for 22.61,i can happily call it a day and search for other opportunities.
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ATW Could Perform

With oil prices rising in the last few weeks, a possible beneficiary of this action could be Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (ATW) focuses in the offshore drilling and completion of oil and gas wells worldwide. The company also offers support, management, and consulting services in its field.

Stock price for ATW is directly related to the price of crude.

Attractive aspects for this company are:

• Good chart pattern, strong support and a five month base at 13.
• Decisively crossed the 50 dma and holding above the 200 dma.
• Good volume at 1.4 million shares/day.
• Low P/E at 5.6
• Low debt.
• Large fund ownership.

ATW seems to be a fine investment at 23.53 provided the price of oil continues to climb.

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TMO Shows Weakness

Latest numbers and chart pattern for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) have made me revise the assessment for the company's near future performance.

Insider selling, price sinking today below its 50 dma and strong overhead resistance, resulted in my choice to exit a long position in the stock.

Bought at about 37.41 on 2/18/09, selling today at 35.04, near a 6.5% loss in 3 months.

I would say it's time to get out and search for better prospects.
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Good Returns From ENS

Brought up in this blog on March 24 of this year, ENS was selling at the time for 12.46 and looking like a good prospect, we just saw a run up in the stock price.
Not wanting to be piggish about it, I am very pleased to cash in on a quick profit. Trading now at 18.26, this represents approximately a 47% return in just 5 weeks.
I say, take the money and run.
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CMED Has Potential

Medical device manufacturers seem to be bouncing back from their recent lows. China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED) shows good signs for a near to longer term upswing.

CMED is a medical device company engaging in the development, manufacture and sale of medical devices and supplies in China.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new three month high.
• Sustained break above the 50 day moving average.
• Adequate average daily volume (509,000).
• Sizable management ownership.

CMED trades today at 19.81 and looks like a good prospect for future profits.

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AKAM Defies Gravity

While new lows are the norm for many stocks as of late, Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) seems to be moving in the opposite direction.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.

After a huge decline on 7/31/08 (approx. 25% loss) on ten times the average daily volume, the stock has formed a solid base at about 12 over a period of five months. Since 1/22/09 the price has been rising consistently, today reaching a new twenty week high, an anomaly in this environment.

AKAM is trading today at 18.23, up .55 and bucking the trend.

Some appealing factors for AKAM are:

• Good volume (4.5 million avg./day)
• Insider buying in December '08
• Steady price rise above the 50 day moving average
• It is one of the top companies in the sector
• Sustained earnings estimate for '09
• Adequate forward P/E of 10.37

I would consider AKAM at this time a good buy candidate.

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A Look at TMO

Fewer and fewer stocks look promising these days when the markets take wild swings and punish most companies under the sun. Has the investing community taken down some solid stocks? According to the chart and numbers available for TMO, I am inclined to favor a long position in the stock.

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO) provides analytical instruments, equipment, software, and services for research, manufacture, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics in the pharmaceutical markets.

Increased mutual fund interest, reasonable P/E at 12, good volume (just under 5 million/day), low debt, and high ranking in the sector make this company worth considering. TMO is trading today at 37.41, this may be a good entry point.
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Time to Load Up on KBR?

The chart pattern for KBR seems to be holding well. I would add to my position (today at 15.43) on a small pull-back.
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KBR Looks Like a Good Prospect

Bottom fishing for value stocks has yielded an interesting prospect, KBR Inc. (KBR).

KBR, Inc. operates as an engineering, construction, and services company supporting energy, petrochemicals, government services, and civil infrastructure sectors worldwide.

Positive factors include:

• Volume at approximately 3.6 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 9.29
• Current price at 66.2% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '06
• Trading today at 15.28

We could be seeing a bottom in the price of this stock

Do Not Panic !

The markets have taken a toll on those of us who are invested. This is not a good time to sell in order to keep the little that is left from our capital. If anything, this deterioration in prices create a buying oportunity in selective issues for those who have the intestinal fortitude to risk more funds.

The cycle we are experiencing will weed-out the weak short-term investors and will continue until most of the willing and unwilling sellers are swept away.

A market bottom may be forming and, in twelve to eighteen months from now, we may be looking at a healthy rebound.
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FMCN Displays a Good Chart

Chart patterns seem to attract my attention. FNCM has formed a double bottom with support at 23 and broke above its 50 day moving average on August 15. I consider these actions a positive sign.

Focus Media Holding Limited (FMCN) operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in the People's Republic of China.

Pluses at this time are:

• Volume at approximately 3.26 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 19 (slightly high for my taste)
• Current price at 55.8% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '04

Trading today at 29.59, FMCN may be a stock worth taking a second look.

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