BINGO! AKAM Gives Us Something to Smile About

On good earnings report, Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) has gained about 15% in today's early trades.
Back on 2/25/09 I liked AKAM at 18.23, today we see a huge pop and trading at 38.25 (a 110% return in 14 months).
My rule is: too high + too fast = cash-in.
I say take profits and look for other oportunities.
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USU on the Upswing

Increasing my long position on USU.
Chart and future prospects look promising, trading this morning at 6.43.
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Stocks to Watch - April '10

Watch list for April '10

AAN------22.53 (after 3/2 split on 4/16/10)
AIZ-------34.89
RCII------23.87

This month we have a retailer, an insurance company and a rental company. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of April.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - March '10"

For the month of March, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------3/1/10---------------3/31/10

DECK----------------120.20--------------138.00 (up 14.81%)
ENDP----------------22.75----------------23.69 (up 4.13%)
RTN-----------------56.24----------------57.12 (up 1.56%)


Our average gain for this month was 6.83% compared to the S&P 500 which saw a 5.88% increase in March.
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Stocks to Watch - March '10

Watch list for March '10

DECK----120.20
ENDP-----22.75
RTN------56.24

We have chosen a mix of sectors for this month. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of March.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - February '10"

For the month of February, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol-------2/2/10---------------2/26/10

AMGN----------------58.72----------------56.61 (down 3.59%)
CEPH----------------64.80----------------68.67 (up 5.97%)
GENZ----------------54.19----------------57.20 (up 5.55%)


Our average gain for this month was 2.64% compared to the S&P 500 which saw a 2.85% increase in February.
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Stocks to Watch - February '10

Watch list for February '10

AMGN----58.72
CEPH----64.80
GENZ----54.19

It appears that biotech may be the flavor of the month. We'll check the performance of these companies in about four weeks.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - January '10"

For the month of January, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol-------1/1/10---------------1/31/10

BCE-----------------27.61----------------25.75 (down 7.22%)
CEPH----------------62.42----------------63.84 (up 2.27%)
NLY-----------------17.35----------------17.38 (up .17%)


The average loss for this month was 1.59% compared to the S&P 500 which deteriorated 3.84% for January.
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Stocks to Watch - January '10

Watch list for January '10

BCE-----27.61
CEPH---62.42
NLY-----17.35

We'll check the performance of these companies at the end of the month.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - December '09"

For the month of December, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol------12/1/09--------------12/31/09

BCE-----------------26.50----------------27.61 (up 4.19%)
DUK-----------------16.68----------------17.21 (up 3.18%)
RTN-----------------51.53----------------51.52 (down .02%)


The average return for this month was 2.45% compared to the S&P 500 which gained 1.78% for December. Happy with the results.
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A Dividend Play: NLY

Having kept an eye on NLY for about four years, I think this may be a good time to seriously consider owning this security.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.(NLY), is a real estate investment trust, which owns, manages, and finances a portfolio of investment securities.

Positives are:

•Nice chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of early March '09.
•Excellent average daily volume of over 8.2 million shares.
•Exceptional dividend yield of 15.2%.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 7.


Trading this morning at 18.52, I look for a continuation of the uptrend.
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Short Term Returns From UNH

Bought on October 28, 2009 at 26.11, UNH is up 4.04% for the day (at 29.66). Over a period of 6 weeks we realized a gain of 13.60%.
I say take these short term returns and cash in the profits.
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Stocks to Watch - December '09

Watch List for December '09

BCE-----26.50
DUK-----16.68
RTN-----51.53

We'll check the performance of these companies at the end of the month.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - November '09"

For the month of November, these stocks appeared to be poised for a good performance:


Stock Symbol------11/1/09--------------11/30/09

CEPH----------------54.58----------------54.95 (up .68%)
NOC-----------------50.13----------------54.80 (up 9.32%)
UNH-----------------25.95----------------28.67 (up 10.48%)


The average return for this month was 6.83%, not bad when you consider that the S&P 500 gained 5.74% for the same period of time. In any case, a very good month at the market.
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Good Signals From BCE

With many stocks hitting 52 week highs, and after taking a pounding a year ago, BCE appears to be lagging in its recovery.

BCE Inc. (BCE) provides communication services to residential and business customers in Canada. Its services include Bell Home Phone local and long distance services, Bell Mobility and Solo Mobile wireless, high-speed Bell Internet, Bell TV direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television, IP-broadband services, and information and communications technology services.

Positives are:

•Good chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the November 26 '08 drop.
•A fair average daily volume of over 647,000 shares.
•A nice dividend yield of 5.7%.
•Forward P/E ratio is at 12.

Trading this morning at 25.84, I am betting that the trend continues and that the stock price will get back to the mid 30's level by the first quarter of 2010.
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Stocks to Watch - November '09

Watch List for November '09

CEPH----54.58
NOC-----50.13
UNH-----25.95

These stocks should outperform the market provided the latest sell off is a temporary correction.
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UNH - A Health Care Play

Trying to figure out the future of health care in the U.S. is beyond me. I am not keen to the idea of politicians trying to fix anything, regardless of party affiliation. Hopefully, something good will come out of the proposals now on the table.

Meanwhile, many of the insurers, pharmas and health care facilities have been beaten down for the past two years. There is a chance that in the future their recovery will materialize.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) is showing signs of life. UNH provides health care services in the United States.

Positives are:

•Fair chart pattern.
•Support at the 23.50 level.
•Average daily volume of over 12.5 million shares.
•Healthy fund ownership.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 8.

Trading this morning at 26.11, I expect UNH to bounce up and cross the 50 dma (now at 27) in the next few weeks, if so, the next resistance level would be at 30.
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Watch List Will be Published Monthly

Due to the amount of time necessary to research and publish the "Weekly Watch List" and the short term view, I have revised the schedule so it can be included in this blog on a monthly basis thus showing a more realistic and accurate result.


Recap for the week of 10/16/09:

on 10/16------------------on 10/23

AKAM 21.80-------------21.50 (down 1.40%)
ATW 39.29---------------38.81 (down 1.24%)
EZPW 14.07---------------14.06 (down .01%)

New list will appear around the beginning of each month.
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Time to Move Out of KBR

Written up on October 7, 2008 and again on January 29, 2009 with prices at 15.28 and 15.43 respectively, KBR Inc. had a tremendous run and after yesterday's drop of 1.41 (down 5.87%) we may have heard a wake up call to take profits.

This retreat clearly marked a break down below the 50 day moving average with a weak support at 21.50.

After gaining approximately 47.25% over a period of less than one year and selling for 22.61,i can happily call it a day and search for other opportunities.
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Going Nowhere at GE

Although Genereal Electric Co. (GE) has made a considerable move up from the March lows, I cannot see great prospects for its future.
Mentioned in this blog on 7/25/08 at 28.58, we are backing out of this position and taking a 47% loss selling it at the price of 15.20, we lick our wounds and move on.
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Let's Take Profits on ATW

Too high, too fast is my view on the recent price move for Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

On 5/26/09 the stock appeared as an attractive buy candidate then trading at 23.53;
today, after a fine run, it is my feeling that taking profits may be a prudent move.

With a price of 40.06 we have gained 70% in almost 5 months. I'd say that is a very nice return.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/19/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/19/09:

AKAM-----21.80
ATW------39.29 (Going strong)
EZPW-----14.07 (May resume uptrend)


Recap for the week of 10/12/09:

on 10/12------------------on 10/16

ATW 37.70---------------39.29 (up 4.22%) A winner as of late.
EZPW 14.34---------------14.07 (down 1.88%) Slight pullback.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/12/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/12/09:

ATW------37.70 (Still a favorite)
EZPW-----14.34 (Ditto)


Recap for the week of 10/5/09:

on 10/6------------------on 10/9

ATW 34.55---------------37.70 (up 9.12%) Jackpot!
EZPW 13.57---------------14.34 (up 5.67%) Nice return.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/5/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/5/09 (as of 10/6/09):

ATW------34.55
EZPW-----13.57


Recap for the week of 9/28/09:

on 9/28----------------on 10/5

DOX 26.40---------------25.89 (down 1.93%) Not so good.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/28/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stock to watch for the week of 9/28/09:

DOX-----26.40


Recap for the week of 9/21/09:

on 9/21----------------on 9/25

DOX 26.65---------------26.40 (down 1%) Still like it.
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AONE is Priced

Expected to be priced at 10.50-11.00, A123 Systems (AONE) went public today with a pre-trading value of 13.50... it never traded that low. The lowest price the stock saw was 16.56 and has not looked back in about one hour of trading, soaring up to 19.70 with incredible momentum.
Those who got in before trading begun have made a sizable gain. Not bad for a company that has yet to show a profit in eight years.
I am not inclined to chase a mad crowd, but then I also chose not to buy Google (GOOG) when it was issued in the $80's.
Oh well!
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An IPO to Watch, A123 (AONE)

Today we await the pricing of an initial public offering: A123 Systems (AONE).
The expected price range is between 10.50 and 11.00.

A123 (AONE) designs, develops, manufactures and sells advanced, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries and battery systems.

Financial backers for this company include: the U.S. Government, General Electric (GE), Motorola (MOT), Qualcom (QCOM), and AES (AES).

Chances are, this will be the hottest IPO for '09.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/21/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stock to watch for the week of 9/21/09:

DOX-----26.65


Recap for the week of 9/14/09:

on 9/15----------------on 9/18

AOB 5.44---------------5.43 (down .18%)
ATW 32.10-------------33.27 (up 3.64%) continued a fine run
DOX 25.88--------------26.65 (up 2.98%) solid

Looking for a dull trading week.
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Drop TKC, Time to Move on

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) was featured in this blog on 7/18/08 (at 15.85)and again on 8/4/09 (at 16.60); since then,the stock has hovered around these prices and is now showing what could be a "head and shoulders" chart pattern. I am inclined to say that, in the near future, the stock is headed down.

For the period of time we held TKC, we collected an anualized dividend of about 4.7%,
and see a profit of 4.79%. Selling today at 16.61, it may be time to move out of this position.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/14/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 9/14/09:
Let's hold off until Tuesday or Wednesday to price them. Expecting a significant drop early Monday as the market opens.

Okay, let's give it a try, as of 9/15/09 the picks are:

AOB-----5.44
ATW----32.10
DOX-----25.88


Recap for the week of 9/8/09:

on 9/8----------------on 9/11

ATW 28.32-------------32.35 (up 14.23%) nice run
COV 39.60-------------41.87 (up 5.73%) no too shabby
DOX 24.91-------------26.11 (up 4.82%) another good one

Great four day week.
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Dumped SLXP a Bit Too Soon

Impatience took the best of me. On August 18 '09 I chose to let go of Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP) at 12.93 after a very dull and fruitless 20 months.
Sold SLPX one month too soon. Today after good news on clinical trials the stock shot up 6.77 (+50.6%) to 20.15, an incredible run... Bummers!
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Something Worth Reading

Once in a while, we come across an article or commentary that, in the midst of a lot of gibberish makes some kind of sense and hopefully allows us to step back and make our own financial decisions, often better than the ones we get from the so-called experts.
This article from "The Motley Fool" is right on target:


http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/09/06/why-you-shouldnt-listen-to-jim-cramer.aspx
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Watch List for the Week of 9/8/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 9/8/09:

ATW 28.32
COV 39.60
DOX 24.91


Recap for the week of 8/31/09:

on 9/1-------------on 9/4

EZPW 13.37---------12.63 (down 5.53%)
KBR 22.65-----------21.81 (down 3.71%)
PFE 16.70-----------16.39 (down 1.86%)
SEPR 18.15----------22.82 (up 25.73%) Luckyyyyy!!!

One pick (SEPR) saved our week.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/31/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/31/09:
(Expecting a decline on Monday and then we will check these stocks and price them on Tuesday or Wednesday)
Okay, as of 9/1/09, let's keep an eye on:

EZPW 13.37
KBR 22.65
PFE 16.70
SEPR 18.15



Recap for the week of 8/24/09:

on 8/24-------------on 8/28

ATW 29.78 --------28.67(down 3.73%)
SEPR 18.35 -------18.59(up 1.31%)
SUG 20.85 --------20.06(down 3.79%)

That was not a good week.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/24/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/24/09 (same as last week):

ATW 29.78
SEPR 18.35
SUG 20.85


Recap for the week of 8/17/09:

on 8/19------------on 8/21

ATW 28.02-----------29.78 (up 6.28%)
SEPR 17.79-----------18.35 (up 3.15%)
SUG 19.04-----------20.85 (up 9.51%)

It's been a good week, we avoided a devastating Monday.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/17/09 (as of 8/19/09)

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/17/09 (as of the morning of 8/19/09):

ATW 28.02
SEPR 17.79
SUG 19.04

Have prosperous trades for the remainder of this week.
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Time to Drop SLXP

On 12/12/07 I wrote about Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SLXP) purchased at 11.89; since then, we have seen nothing but red. Held on to it for over 20 months. I think it is time to let it go.
Trading today at 12.93 (an 8.75% gain) may be a good time to unload.
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Expect a Drop Today - Last Week's Recap

Due to the significant drops in the Asian markets overnight, I am delaying the weekly watch list for at least one day. As a result, expect major losses today in the U.S. from the fallout.

Recap for the week of 8/10/09:
on 8/10------------on 8/14

AKAM 19.46---------18.01 (down 7.45%)
ATW 28.96----------28.08 (down 3.04%)
COV 38.16----------39.09 (up 2.44%)
KBR 22.42----------22.86 (up 1.96)

Hang on for dear life.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/10/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/10/09:

AKAM 19.46
ATW 28.96
COV 38.16
KBR 22.42

Recap for the week of 8/3/09:

on 8/3------------on 8/7

COV 37.81---------38.16 (up .93%)
ATW 28.84---------28.96 (up .42%)
GE 13.40----------14.70 (up 9.70%)
PFE 15.93---------15.96 (up .19%)


Have a profitable trading week.
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About AKAM

Insiders are putting their money where their mouths are.
After disappointing earnings report and a 20% day drop in stock value (on 7/29/09), several directors, CEO and other officers are investing about $3.3 million of their own money in Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) as reported this morning in the following article:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10564083/1/three-insiders-buy-33m-worth-of-akamai.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

That action may be a signal to increase a position in this company.
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More Comments About TKC

On July 18, 2008 I wrote about Turkcell Ilet (TKC), since then we have seen a gain of 4.3% (in addition to the 4.9% dividend). I would say it has given us a decent return considering the market behavior over the past year.

Motley Fool just posted an article about TKC:

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/08/04/5-star-stocks-poised-to-pop-turkcell.aspx

It appears that this stock has legs and may continue to realize gains in the near foreseeable future.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/3/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/3/09:

COV 37.81
ATW 28.84
GE 13.40
PFE 15.93

Stocks mentioned for the week of 7/27/09:

on 7/27------------on 7/31

ATW 28.94--------28.84 (down .35%)
SUG 19.80---------19.38 (down 2.12%)
KBR 19.88----------21.19 (up 6.59%)
AMGN 60.92-------62.31 (up 2.28%)

Have a profitable trading week.
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Next Week Choices

Starting today, and continuing each week, I will post stock symbols that appear to have a good chance for nice returns. The following week, a comment will recap the performance of those stocks... This is only a test.

Stocks to watch for the week of 7/27/09:

ATW 28.94
SUG 19.80
KBR 19.88
AMGN 60.92

Good luck on your investments.
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Covidien is on the Move

After being removed from the S&P 500 and relocating its headquarters to Ireland, Covidien (COV) has not missed a step on its way up to nearly four month highs.

Covidien PLC (COV) develops, manufactures, and sells health care products for use in clinical and home settings worldwide. COV has four divisions: Medical Devices, Imaging Solutions, Pharmaceutical Products, and Medical Supplies.

Positives are:

• Good chart pattern.
• Strong support above the 50 dma.
• Average daily volume of over 6.8 million shares.
• Number of funds owning the stock has increased for the past four quarters.
• Forward P/E ratio is at 11.9

Closing on Friday at 36.05, I expect Covidien to maintain the trend and cross the 200 dma (now at 38.94) in the near future, thus boosting the stock price for the next push.

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Missed the Move on TMO

On 5/15/09 I followed a false signal on TMO and sold it at a slight loss, since then the stock has moved up and gained 6.75... bad call,bummer!
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ATW Could Perform

With oil prices rising in the last few weeks, a possible beneficiary of this action could be Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (ATW) focuses in the offshore drilling and completion of oil and gas wells worldwide. The company also offers support, management, and consulting services in its field.

Stock price for ATW is directly related to the price of crude.

Attractive aspects for this company are:

• Good chart pattern, strong support and a five month base at 13.
• Decisively crossed the 50 dma and holding above the 200 dma.
• Good volume at 1.4 million shares/day.
• Low P/E at 5.6
• Low debt.
• Large fund ownership.

ATW seems to be a fine investment at 23.53 provided the price of oil continues to climb.

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TMO Shows Weakness

Latest numbers and chart pattern for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) have made me revise the assessment for the company's near future performance.

Insider selling, price sinking today below its 50 dma and strong overhead resistance, resulted in my choice to exit a long position in the stock.

Bought at about 37.41 on 2/18/09, selling today at 35.04, near a 6.5% loss in 3 months.

I would say it's time to get out and search for better prospects.
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Good Returns From ENS

Brought up in this blog on March 24 of this year, ENS was selling at the time for 12.46 and looking like a good prospect, we just saw a run up in the stock price.
Not wanting to be piggish about it, I am very pleased to cash in on a quick profit. Trading now at 18.26, this represents approximately a 47% return in just 5 weeks.
I say, take the money and run.
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CMED Has Potential

Medical device manufacturers seem to be bouncing back from their recent lows. China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED) shows good signs for a near to longer term upswing.

CMED is a medical device company engaging in the development, manufacture and sale of medical devices and supplies in China.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new three month high.
• Sustained break above the 50 day moving average.
• Adequate average daily volume (509,000).
• Sizable management ownership.

CMED trades today at 19.81 and looks like a good prospect for future profits.

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ENS - An Infrastructure Play

Along with other choices such as GVA and KBR, Enersys seems to be poised to continue its upward trend.

Enersys (ENS) manufactures, markets, and distributes industrial batteries and related products. It also offers related direct current power products, including chargers, electronic power equipment, and various battery accessories. Its motive power batteries are used for industrial forklift trucks, mining equipment, railroad equipment and by material handling equipment dealers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as well as by end users, such as manufacturers, distributors, warehouse operators, retailers, airports, mine operators, and railroads.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new four month high.
• Strong break above the 50 day moving average.
• Increasing average daily volume.
• Heavy fund ownership.
• Low P/E (approx 6.23).

ENS is trading this morning at about 12.46 and could reach the twelve month estimated target of 15.

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Dividends Slashed

Prepare yourselves for a barrage of dividend cuts.
In order to cut costs in these difficult times, many companies will take advantage and announce a dividend cut or totally suspend the seemingly attractive quarterly returns.
As the stocks price declined, the dividends that remained unchanged have become disproportionately high yields compared to those of savings accounts, cd's or bonds.
When these changes occur, a new wave of selling will take place, led by investor disappointment.
After the bulk of dividend reduction has taken place, we can begin to search for bargains and better than average yields.
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AKAM Defies Gravity

While new lows are the norm for many stocks as of late, Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) seems to be moving in the opposite direction.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.

After a huge decline on 7/31/08 (approx. 25% loss) on ten times the average daily volume, the stock has formed a solid base at about 12 over a period of five months. Since 1/22/09 the price has been rising consistently, today reaching a new twenty week high, an anomaly in this environment.

AKAM is trading today at 18.23, up .55 and bucking the trend.

Some appealing factors for AKAM are:

• Good volume (4.5 million avg./day)
• Insider buying in December '08
• Steady price rise above the 50 day moving average
• It is one of the top companies in the sector
• Sustained earnings estimate for '09
• Adequate forward P/E of 10.37

I would consider AKAM at this time a good buy candidate.

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A Look at TMO

Fewer and fewer stocks look promising these days when the markets take wild swings and punish most companies under the sun. Has the investing community taken down some solid stocks? According to the chart and numbers available for TMO, I am inclined to favor a long position in the stock.

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO) provides analytical instruments, equipment, software, and services for research, manufacture, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics in the pharmaceutical markets.

Increased mutual fund interest, reasonable P/E at 12, good volume (just under 5 million/day), low debt, and high ranking in the sector make this company worth considering. TMO is trading today at 37.41, this may be a good entry point.
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Cost Averaging SUG

Experiencing a 50% "paper loss" on Southern Union Co. (SUG) over the last 8 months, this may be time to buy more (today at 13.30) and lower the average cost per share while increasing the position.
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Time to Load Up on KBR?

The chart pattern for KBR seems to be holding well. I would add to my position (today at 15.43) on a small pull-back.
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Bad News

Prepare yourselves for a historical market crash, starting today we are going to experience a continuation of the downtrend of previously unseen proportions. Sadly, on July 11, 2007 I wrote in this blog about some rough times ahead; I did not follow my own advise thinking that it would be a short term correction and remained invested. Here we are fifteen months later and facing a worst case scenario.

If you are long in the market, there's nowhere to go, run or hide, we are going to be punished like never before.

A suggestion, take a deep breath, don't panic and ride the storm. At this time, and for the next two to three weeks (after the election), I would not put any more money in the market. There will be buying opportunities later on.

Best of luck to all of you.
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Funny... However, Sad and True

The following link is worth watching. Hopefully, we'll be able to laugh about it three to five years from now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC31Oudc5Bg

Thanks OZ for forwarding it to me.
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KBR Looks Like a Good Prospect

Bottom fishing for value stocks has yielded an interesting prospect, KBR Inc. (KBR).

KBR, Inc. operates as an engineering, construction, and services company supporting energy, petrochemicals, government services, and civil infrastructure sectors worldwide.

Positive factors include:

• Volume at approximately 3.6 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 9.29
• Current price at 66.2% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '06
• Trading today at 15.28

We could be seeing a bottom in the price of this stock

Do Not Panic !

The markets have taken a toll on those of us who are invested. This is not a good time to sell in order to keep the little that is left from our capital. If anything, this deterioration in prices create a buying oportunity in selective issues for those who have the intestinal fortitude to risk more funds.

The cycle we are experiencing will weed-out the weak short-term investors and will continue until most of the willing and unwilling sellers are swept away.

A market bottom may be forming and, in twelve to eighteen months from now, we may be looking at a healthy rebound.
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Cash-in on VPHM

Good returns from Viropharma Inc. (VPHM). On October 16, 2007 VPHM looked attractive at 9.57; today at 13.80 that investment shows a 44% gain in just under 12 months.
I'm happy with these results especially in rough markets. At this time, I don't see much upside potential, time to sell.
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FMCN Displays a Good Chart

Chart patterns seem to attract my attention. FNCM has formed a double bottom with support at 23 and broke above its 50 day moving average on August 15. I consider these actions a positive sign.

Focus Media Holding Limited (FMCN) operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in the People's Republic of China.

Pluses at this time are:

• Volume at approximately 3.26 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 19 (slightly high for my taste)
• Current price at 55.8% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '04

Trading today at 29.59, FMCN may be a stock worth taking a second look.

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Something About ALD

Ready to break above short-term overhead resistance, ALD appears to be primed for a move up.

Allied Capital Corporation (ALD) is a private equity company focusing on buyouts, acquisitions, note purchases, recapitalizations, growth capital, and middle market equity and debt investments.

Interesting aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2.03 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 11
• A dividend of 17.6% (could be cut in the near future, if so we may see a dramatic sell-off)
• Current price at 52.5% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings expected for '08 and '09
• Insider buying since early June
• A .65 dividend coming up on 9/10/08

Closing on Friday at 14.75, I am willing to call ALD a buy.
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Tail Winds at GE?

At a time of erratic behavior in the market, a safe harbor may be the right choice. General Electric Company (GE) appears to be a good value at these levels, selling today at 28.58.

GE operates as a technology, media, and financial services company worldwide. Its infrastructure segment produces jet engines, turboprop and turbo shaft engines, and related replacement parts for use in military and commercial aircraft; wind turbines; aircraft engine derivatives; gas and steam turbines, and generators; drilling and production systems, compressors, turbines, and industrial power generation equipment; diesel-electric locomotives; and water treatment solutions for industrial and municipal water systems. It also offers financial products and services for aviation and energy sectors, as well as engages in gathering, processing, transporting, and marketing natural gas and gas liquids.

On a long term view, GE is well positioned in the wind turbine sector (alternative energy), water treatment and energy efficient aircraft engines.

At about a 31.3% discount from its highs of late September '07, P/E of about 13, a 4.3% dividend, massive average daily volume, and worldwide exposure and recognition; I would not hesitate to take a long position in the company.
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TKC Could be Forming a Base

Turkcell Ilet (TKC) has been losing ground since its highs of late November '07. After a sizeable drop in value, the stock may be hovering around a short-term support at 15.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. engages in establishing and operating Global System for Mobile Communications network in Turkey. The company provides mobile telecommunication services, including mobile voice and data services over its GSM network. Its voice services include wireless telephone services on a prepaid and postpaid basis.

Few of the attractive signs are:

• Volume at approximately 1.35 million average shares/day
• P/E is less than 9
• A dividend of 3.8% (paid yearly)
• Current price at 47% below the 52 week high
• Fund ownership has been increasing during the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '01

Trading today at 15.85, I would consider TKC a buy candidate at around these levels.

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Time to Drop AINV

Apollo Investment Co. (AINV) has turned south, broke below both the 200 and 50 DMA's in one day. The chart does not look so good.

Holding on to a 5.2% return in less than 4 months, I am ready to let go. Time to sell, this morning trading at about 16.40 down a fraction, new signs of weakness.
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Still Bullish on USU

Six months after comments on this blog about USEC Inc. (USU) and experiencing a 27% "paper loss", we may see daylight sometime in the near future.
An article on "The Motley Fool" is like a breath of fresh air after a period of uncertainty.
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/06/12/a-big-upgrade-for-usec.aspx
It will be interesting to find out if a contrarian view proves to be on target for the next move on USU.
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AVT Bounces Back

Avnet Inc. (AVT) appears to have enough bouncing power these days to recover from the April 15th 12% drop. Yesterday's closing price of 30.33 could be viewed as a "dead cat bounce", however, the decisive break above the 50 DMA could signal a recovery.

Avnet Inc. (AVT), together with its subsidiaries, distributes electronic components, enterprise computer and software products, and embedded subsystems primarily in Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Some of the positive aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2 million average shares/day
• Reasonable book value
• P/E of just under 10
• Current price at 32% below the 52 week high
• Good fund ownership, increasing interest for the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '02

This stock could continue its upswing and bring good returns in the next few months.

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Time to unload BEXP

Finally, after two years of weathering painful times, Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) has made a solid turn-around and now we are seeing healthy gains.
BEXP was mentioned on 3/28/06 at 9.20, selling today at 14.30 brings us a 55.43% return in 26 months. I'm content with those returns. Time to cash in some gains.
Patience, again, has been rewarded.
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Charting SUG

Southern Union Co. (SUG) has been rising from its lows of mid March and is forming a desirable chart pattern.

SUG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, processing, transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas in the United States.

The chart shows the stock price breaking above the 50 DMA (4/25/08), holding well with a fairly strong move towards the 200 DMA and a the long term declining tops line.

Some of the positive aspects are:

• Volume at 889,000 average shares/day
• Yield of 2.3%
• Reasonable book value
• P/E of just under 15

SUG, trading this morning at 26.42, could possibly add some sweetness to a portfolio.

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EDS Being Bought by HP?

Hewett-Packard Co. has offered to buy Electronic Data Systems Corp. for 25.00 per share in cash. That transaction is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Under those conditions, we would realize a 10% return in about 12 months from the original price of 22.75 mentioned on October 10, 2007 and a 30.4% gain over the updated comment on May 3, 2008 (10 days ago) when the stock was trading at 19.17.

Fortunate for those of us who were patient enough to hold on, not panic and apply a cost averaging approach during some tough times.
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Is it Time for KBE?

On October 4, 2007, I wrote about Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). The main focus was on KBE, an ETF investing in large banks. Since then the stock value has dropped 25%, a choice that proved to be much too early for a near term profitable outcome. I have been hanging in there knowing that the negativity in the sector would, in time, reverse its course.

I would tend to think that the bottom is near and expect most banks not only survive but thrive in years to come.

It is not the time to give up, better to wait and add to a long position in order to bring the average cost down and participate in an upswing. Meanwhile, a 6% dividend should keep us in the game and with a price of 40.31 it can be a good place to reload.

An interesting article with an in depth look at KBE can be read at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/76495-investing-in-banks-the-kbw-large-bank-index?source=yahoo

For those of you who have patiently waited out this deteriorating situation, expect better days ahead.
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Is GVA Ready for a Bounce?

Always searching for value, I like to consider beaten up stocks as mid to long term investments.
Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA) appears to be promising adequate returns in the coming months.

GVA with its subsidiaries, operates as a heavy civil contractor and a construction materials producer for public and private sector clients in the U. S. Some of its projects include construction and improvement of streets, roads, highways, and bridges.

GVA is selling today at about 33.10, 55.6% below its 52 week high; an average daily volume of 888,000 shares, a P/E of 12, insider buying over the last 6 weeks, and may be ready to break above the 50 day moving average (now at 34).

Time to focus on companies that would benefit from an infrastructure upgrade surge which many states, cities and municipalities are in dire need.

Another Big Bang

With bloody noses from yesterday's action in the stock markets, we'd better be ready to face the next round of attacks from the bears.

Having the financial sector in total disarray, the diminishing value of the dollar, world markets taking hits and a recession well on it's way; I can't see any factors that would make the U.S. markets turn around any time soon. The worst case scenario would be a downward spiral, if that turns out to be, then we haven't much of a clue where the bottom could be.

Good luck, don't despair, keep the powder dry.

An Eye on AINV

Apollo Investment Corporation (AINV) could, in the near future, survive and make a turn-around despite the present financial crisis.

AINV focus on investing in the following industries: business services, cable television, chemicals, consumer products, direct marketing, distribution, energy and utilities, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, media, publishing, retail and transportation.

The positives are: price holding just above the 50 day moving average (dma), trades over 1.3 million shares/day, sells at a 35% discount from its 52 week high, insider buying, yields 12.9% dividends, P/E at 7 and a chart that shows a possible bottom.

The negatives are: financials continuing in a decline and/or a break below the 50 dma.

AINV is selling at about 15.61 and is worth keeping an eye on.

A Look at LHO

LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO) has been near the top of my list since the beginning of the year, it's time to take a serious look at the oportunity that this company may offer.

LaSalle Hotel Properties, is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which engages in the purchase, ownership, and lease of upscale and luxury hotels located in convention, resort, and urban business markets in the U. S.

LHO is selling today at about 29.62, trades an average of 633,000 shares daily, offers an attractive yield of 7.20%, the number of funds holding positions has increased over the last 3 quarters, has a low book value, the chart may indicate a bottom at around 27, and earnings have increased since 2003.

Expect a sustained rise in price if it breaks above the 50 day moving average at around 31.

Brace Yourselves

If the U.S. market follows the action of foreign stock exchanges, then we are in for some pain.
Expect tomorrow to be one of the worst days and this trend may continue for a week or so.
Wrong time to panic and sell. This could possibly be the worst time if you are long in the market and a good time to start looking at buying opportunities.
So, batten down the hatches, weather the storm and don't panic. Good luck.

Are You Still Holding ASVI?

If you were patient enough to stay with a long position on ASV Inc. (ASVI), then your ship may have arrived. This morning, Terex Corp. announced its intent to purchase ASVI for 18.00 per share, a premium of 46% over the Friday's closing price.

On 10/19/06 and again on 10/31/06, ASVI was mentioned in this blog as an attractive stock, originally selling at 16.60 it seemed to be a value company. The housing industry slow down, lower than expected earnings and U.S. markets sinking rapidly, managed to bring the stock price to 4 year lows. At the time, I chose not to panic and hang in there, it worked to our advantage.

For more information on the possible transaction see the following link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080114/terex_asv.html?.v=1

Getting Some Energy From USU

For over a month, USEC Inc. (USU) has been popping up near the top of my list. I think it's time to mention it in this blog.

USEC, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, supplies low enriched uranium for commercial nuclear power plants worldwide. The company also performs contract work for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and DOE contractors at the Paducah and Portsmouth plants, which includes the maintenance of the Portsmouth gaseous diffusion plant in a state of readiness or cold standby, processing out-of-specification uranium, and provision of infrastructure support services. In addition, USEC provides nuclear energy solutions and services, including design, fabrication, and implementation of spent nuclear fuel technologies; nuclear materials transportation; and nuclear fuel cycle consulting services.

USU's stock (today at 9.21) has formed a base with solid short term support at around 8.00, broke above the 50 day moving average 7 days ago and has, to date, held above that line. Over 4.5 million shares trade per day, short positions amount to about 25% of the floating shares. Low debt, a low P/E of 7 and a good book value raise my interest in this company. Number of funds owning the stock have increased over the past 4 quarters.

This one could be a bargain at this price.

Check Out SLXP

Over the last few weeks Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP) has consistently been showing up in my stock screener. Several days ago, I saw a nice change in its chart pattern, the stock price broke above the 50 day moving average and, up to date, has held steady above it. I like that behavior provided it holds above 11.82 (50 DMA).

Salix Pharmaceuticals, Ltd. engages in acquiring, developing, and commercializing prescription drugs used in the treatment of various gastrointestinal diseases in the United States.

SLXP is trading today at 11.89, 27.4% off its 52 week high, trades an average of just over 780 thousand shares per day. A heavily shorted stock (about 1/3 of its floating shares) could make an investor with contrarian views salivate should a short squeeze occur. If the stock price continues on and uptrend, shorts may head for the exits. It is early to tell if this move can carry through the next 2 months.

I am betting that this one is going to perform well in the future.

A Look at PNSN

Another dismal trading session. On a day when most stocks are taking hits, Penson Worldwide, Inc. (PNSN) seems to be holding up well.
Penson Worldwide, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides a range of securities and futures processing infrastructure products and services to the securities and investment industry.
Although PNSN is thinly traded at around 200,000 shares per day, the chart shows an interesting double bottom at just above 15, trading today at 16.45 (53% below its 52 week high), earnings have increased since '05, P/E is at 14 and the company has a worldwide exposure.
PNSN is now providing access to U.S. markets for costumers of a leading Indian stock brokerage.
All signs indicate that PNSN is worth considering.

A Bit Early on HIMX

Timing is everything; as of late, interesting stocks have lagged and taken some tumbles along with most securities in the U.S. markets. Patience is a virtue that, often gets lost in troubled times.
I'm not giving up on HIMX; picked as a possibility on June 7 of this year at 5.18, retreated since then to the high 3's.
The company is planning to repurchase $40M of its shares, increased earnings estimates for '07 and '08. Trading this morning at 4.39 well above its 50 day moving average which was crossed on Friday with 6 times the average daily volume.
Given the strength and support shown today by Himax Technologies, Inc. on a day of broad weakness in the markets, I would consider increasing my long position.

A Look at VPHM

Painful days in the investment world, a reminder of October '87. It might be time to position some funds into out-of-favor stocks.
ViroPharma Inc. (VPHM), selling at 9.57, seems to be holding up well in somewhat sad market conditions.

ViroPharma Incorporated is a bio pharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of products that address serious infectious diseases, with a focus on products used by physician specialists or in hospital settings in the United States.

I see some positive characteristics that could signify a favorable move in the stock price, high average daily volume, may close today above its 50 day moving average (9.49), increased fund ownership over the past few weeks, stock at 48% below the 52 week high, low P/E ratio (7) and a reasonable book value of 1.58 have made this company worth looking at.

Short Squeeze on HW?

Are we going to see a short squeeze on Headwaters Inc. (HW) any time soon? If so, be prepared to experience a nice rebound of this stock.
At this time the price is rising decidedly above its 50 day moving average on news of a feasibility study for a coal liquefaction plant in Assam, India.
If the stock holds today and builds upward momentum, those investors holding short positions on HW could be running to cover in the near future.
Trading at 15.80 today, we are at 22.3% below my original comment of 5/23/07 when it was selling at 20.41 and about even with a second mention on 8/22/07.
I like the chart formation at this time and expect positive results in the weeks ahead.

EDS Crosses the Line

Electronic Data Systems (EDS) just crossed above its 50 day moving average, normally that's a bullish sign.

Electronic Data Systems Corporation delivers a portfolio of information technology and business process outsourcing services worldwide. The company offers infrastructure services, such as hosting, workplace (desktop), storage, security and privacy, and communications services.

Today, with the DJIA down 65.30, EDS is up .15 at 22.75, showing strength on a weak market day. Note that between 7/23/07 and 8/9/07 the value of the stock lost about 20% on heavy volume, a CEO change could make a difference in the price behavior. Enough for a reversal?

With an average daily volume of over 3 million shares, a P/E of about 18, today's price at a 24% discount from the 52 week high, and improved earnings over the past 4 years make EDS my choice for "Flavor of the Day"

Large Banks are on the Move

A few weeks ago, the Fed lowered interest rates making money available and more affordable for banks and lending institutions, many of them under a dark cloud after the "sub-prime" debacle.
The financial sector has been beaten up in the stock markets and several of these companies are poised for a rebound.
A chance to take part on the positive move is buying into a Specialty - Financial ETF such as KBE.
KBE's major holdings include Bank of America (BAC), Bank of NY Mellon (BK), Citigroup (C), J P Morgan Chase (JPM), Wachovia (WB) and Wells Fargo (WFC) to name a few.
KBE is trading today at about 54.00 per share, average volume near 1 million per day, dividend was 5.28% (as of 6/30/07), and has an expense ratio of .36%; its inception date is 11/8/05.
A new investment vehicle for me, I'm willing to give it a try.

About ETF's

"Exchange Traded Funds" more commonly known as ETF's could be the successors of mutual funds. With 100's to choose, they offer a chance to buy into an industry, indices, country or commodity without the cost, management skills and paper work required to purchase individual stocks.
Generally, ETF's have fewer managers, lower costs and cover as many sectors as mutual funds.
iShares, SPDR and ProShares are some of the more popular families of funds, each offering a variety of categories.
Here are a few basic factors to consider when investing in ETF's:

• Liquidity is important, high trading volume is desireable.
• Low expense ratio.
• The family of funds should be run by a reputable firm.

In choosing an individual ETF, think of it as a stock and opt for the sector that you expect will do well in the future.

ACLS Falls Out of Favor

Stock performance for Axcelis Technologies Inc. (ACLS) has been disappointing, thus creating a not so attractive chart pattern.
Mentioned on 8/1/07 at 5.68 as a possible comeback, selling today at 4.76; I am taking this one out of my list and exiting the long position with a 16.2% loss.

Bottom Fishing for a Possible Come Back

It is difficult to focus on buying stocks when most of our holdings are taking a beating. On July 11 (as noted in this blog) there were some signs of weakness in the markets, three weeks later we are experiencing wild swings of the indices and no end in sight.
Possibly one big "dive" in stock prices in the near future may cause many investors to panic, willing and unwilling sellers will exit their long positions, and then we could resume a longer term bull market.

Holding at near a 12 month low, Axcelis Technologies Inc. (ACLS), selling today at 5.68, looks like it may start to make a base.
Axcelis Technologies, Inc. designs, manufactures, and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing, and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips in the United States, Europe, and Asia.
ACLS trades an average of 1.3 million shares per day, a projected P/E of about 16, holdings by funds increased in the past weeks, number of funds owning the stock have consistently gone up for the last 4 quarters and a fairly low book value make this company interesting enough for us to take notice.

A. O. Smith Soars

A. O. Smith Corp. (AOS) opened this morning at a new 52 week high after reporting better than expected second quarter earnings and raised its '07 outlook.
Trading today at about 48.85 (up 4.96 for the day) makes it a 35.5% gain in a little over 7 months when on 12/7/06 AOS came up in this blog at 36.06.
I think it's time to take profits.

Rough Waters Ahead

Those of you who follow the charts realize that there is good reason to be concerned about the near term of the market.
Many stock and indices' graphs have made a definite "head and shoulders" formation. This may indicate a serious downturn in U. S. equities.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 broke below its 50 day moving average of 1513.47 closing at about 1510, if we don't get a significant rebound today, we should see further deterioration of stock prices. If so, brace yourselves for a rough ride.

Good News From CORS

Yesterday, after the markets closed, the company (Corus Bankshares, Inc.) announced a special dividend of $ 1.00 per share, sending the stock price to about 18.25 (up 1.89 from yesterdays close) in pre-market trading.
Good news for those who hold long positions in this stock.

Surviving the Blows

During the last few days, the markets have been in an ugly mood. It seems like everything in sight is getting pounded. Most of our holdings are giving up some of the gains that we, so patiently, managed to accrue.
My thought is that this is a temporary correction and, in a week or so, stock prices will resume their upward trend.
Amazingly enough, there are a few securities that are holding well under this selling pressure.
Today, Himax Technologies, Inc. (HIMX) appears to be unaffected by the general market behavior.
Himax Technologies, Inc. engages in the design, development, and marketing of semiconductors that are used as components of flat panel displays. The company is based in Taiwan, ADR's are available through the NASDAQ.
HIMX, trading at 5.18 (up .05 for the day), 12 P/E, average daily volume of 481,500; nice base with short term support at around 4.96. Management owns a good percentage of the shares so they have a real interest in the performance of the stock.
I like the resiliency it shows under the existing conditions.

Headwaters Inc. May Be Primed

I've been watching Headwaters Inc. (HW) for over 3 weeks. I think it is about to make a move up.

Headwaters Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides products, technologies, and services to the energy and construction materials industries in the United States. It operates in three segments: Construction Materials, Coal Combustion Products, and Alternative Energy.

HW is trading today at about 20.41, 31% below its 52 week high, average volume is 818,000 shares per day, low book value, moderate debt. Number of funds owning the stock has increased over the last 3 quarters. There are large short positions that could help give it a nice upside momentum if they choose to cover.

A Nice Jump by HERO

This morning we woke up to some welcome news on possitive Q1 earnings for Hercules Offshore Inc. (HERO).
On March 13, 2007; just over 6 weeks ago, HERO emerged as a possible bargain at 26.87. Today it is trading at about 32.10, a 19.46% return in a very short period of time.
It may be wise to cash in on some profits at this time.

Patience Ran Out for MHO

On 8/7/06 I chose M I Homes Inc. (MHO) at 35.04... it's obvious that I held it for too long and missed the "dead cat bounce". In early December '06 it reached a price in the high 38's; from that time, it's been on a downward spiral without any significant support and nearing 4 year lows.
Taking a 26.6% loss, I have to bail out of this one at 25.73, don't see too many possitive signs for the immediate future. It may take the housing industry anywhere from 1 to 2 years to recover.

Catch the Dividend

Most banks have been battered as of late due to sub-prime loans, bubble burst in the real estate markets and an uncertain future for interest rates.
In the past, bad news have been soon forgotten and sectors have kept on moving in cycles. Catching stocks at near their lows is what I aim to do.
One stock that has been in my "crosshairs" is Corus Bankshares, Inc. (CORS). It operates as the bank holding company for Corus Bank, N.A., which offers consumer and corporate banking products and services in the United States. The bank principally provides commercial real estate lending with primary focus on condominium projects comprising construction of new projects and conversion of existing apartments into condominiums. It also has a portfolio of loans secured by hotels and office buildings. The bank's primary lending market consists of various metropolitan areas in Florida and California, New York City, and the Washington, D.C.
CORS is trading today at 17.99, near a 3 year low and at about 46.7% below its 52 week high, average daily volume is 880,000 shares, leading P/E of about 6, significant fund and management ownership and an unusually large amount of short-selling.
Best of all, it pays a 5.7% dividend, ex-dividend date is 3/26/07 of .25/share.
If we can peg the lows on this stock, we may enjoy a good bounce from these prices and hopefully, squeeze out some of the short positions.

On a Bloody Day, Opportunities Arise

Another crushing day at the market. Just two weeks after a major pull-back, we see stock prices tumble again.
At this point, I am tempted to view this action as a healthy correction (between 5% and 10%) from the February 20 record highs.
Provided this sell-off doesn't develop into a downward spiral, we may see some buying opportunities on selective stocks. If the trend continues, buckle your seatbelts, we could be in for a very rough ride.
Today, Hercules Offshore, Inc. (HERO) is down .02 at 26.87, it just broke above the 50 day moving average and is holding well at a time when everything else is bleeding.
Hercules Offshore, Inc. and subsidiaries provide shallow-water drilling and liftboat services to the oil and natural gas exploration and production industry in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and internationally.
Average daily volume is 573,000; leading P/E is about 6, earnings have increased consistently for at least the last three years with good projections for '07 and '08, made a nice base at 25.
Trading at about 38.5% below it's 52 week high, this may be a bargain worth researching.

What Took Them So Long?

It feels good to be one step ahead of the "experts".
This is an article I read today about Kemet Corp.:

RESEARCH ALERT-Lehman upgrades Kemet to overweight Thu Mar 8, 2007 9:47 AM ET
March 8 (Reuters) -
KEMET CORP.
Current Prior Rating Overweight Equal weight
Lehman Brothers said the beaten down stock of Kemet represents one of the best values in its coverage universe.
If the company successfully integrates the pending acquisition of Evox Rifa Group , it could post earnings of 70 cents a share or higher a year from now, Lehman said in a research note.
Investors tend to view the maker of passive electronic components as a short-term trading vehicle rather than a buy and hold stock, the brokerage, which has a price target of $11 on Kemet, said.
The shares were up almost 4.5 percent at $8.16 in early morning trade on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Sreerupa Mitra in Bangalore)

Stock Picks Update

For the past two weeks or so, we have seen very possitive markets. One thing that concerns me as an investor is a run-up in stock prices over a short period of time. Depending on each individual's "comfort level", this may be a good time to take some profits.

Here's a recap of the securities mentioned in this blog and previous emails:

Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP): On 3/28/06 at 9.20, today at 6.16, down 33.04%. I'm staying with it, too late to cut losses.

M I Homes Inc. (MHO): On 8/7/06 at 35.04, today at 37.21, up 6.19%. Broke above the 50 and 200 day moving averages, looking good at this time.

Simpson Mfg. Co. Inc. (SSD): On 9/20/06 at 27.07, trading today at 35.20, up 1.58. A gain of 30.03% in just over 4 months. Cautiously content with the results, may take some profits.

A S V Inc. (ASVI): On 10/19/06 at 16.60, today at 17.06, up 2.77%. Hanging in there, no action.

Smith A O Corp. (AOS): On 12/7/06 at 36.06, today at 39.03, up 8.24%. Staying with the long position.

Kemet Corp. (KEM): On 1/25/07 at 7.56, today at 7.79, up 3.04%. Still looks good, price at a 3 month high after setting a nice base. May add to the holdings.

It has been a very exciting time for the investment community. As we all know, unforeseen events and profit taking could erase the smiles off our faces and turn them into tears, along with the sudden disappearance of any "paper gains". I don't see anything wrong with cashing in profits when everyone else thinks the markets are on an endless ride up... nothing rises forever.