CMED Has Potential

Medical device manufacturers seem to be bouncing back from their recent lows. China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED) shows good signs for a near to longer term upswing.

CMED is a medical device company engaging in the development, manufacture and sale of medical devices and supplies in China.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new three month high.
• Sustained break above the 50 day moving average.
• Adequate average daily volume (509,000).
• Sizable management ownership.

CMED trades today at 19.81 and looks like a good prospect for future profits.

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ENS - An Infrastructure Play

Along with other choices such as GVA and KBR, Enersys seems to be poised to continue its upward trend.

Enersys (ENS) manufactures, markets, and distributes industrial batteries and related products. It also offers related direct current power products, including chargers, electronic power equipment, and various battery accessories. Its motive power batteries are used for industrial forklift trucks, mining equipment, railroad equipment and by material handling equipment dealers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as well as by end users, such as manufacturers, distributors, warehouse operators, retailers, airports, mine operators, and railroads.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new four month high.
• Strong break above the 50 day moving average.
• Increasing average daily volume.
• Heavy fund ownership.
• Low P/E (approx 6.23).

ENS is trading this morning at about 12.46 and could reach the twelve month estimated target of 15.

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Dividends Slashed

Prepare yourselves for a barrage of dividend cuts.
In order to cut costs in these difficult times, many companies will take advantage and announce a dividend cut or totally suspend the seemingly attractive quarterly returns.
As the stocks price declined, the dividends that remained unchanged have become disproportionately high yields compared to those of savings accounts, cd's or bonds.
When these changes occur, a new wave of selling will take place, led by investor disappointment.
After the bulk of dividend reduction has taken place, we can begin to search for bargains and better than average yields.
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AKAM Defies Gravity

While new lows are the norm for many stocks as of late, Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) seems to be moving in the opposite direction.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.

After a huge decline on 7/31/08 (approx. 25% loss) on ten times the average daily volume, the stock has formed a solid base at about 12 over a period of five months. Since 1/22/09 the price has been rising consistently, today reaching a new twenty week high, an anomaly in this environment.

AKAM is trading today at 18.23, up .55 and bucking the trend.

Some appealing factors for AKAM are:

• Good volume (4.5 million avg./day)
• Insider buying in December '08
• Steady price rise above the 50 day moving average
• It is one of the top companies in the sector
• Sustained earnings estimate for '09
• Adequate forward P/E of 10.37

I would consider AKAM at this time a good buy candidate.

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A Look at TMO

Fewer and fewer stocks look promising these days when the markets take wild swings and punish most companies under the sun. Has the investing community taken down some solid stocks? According to the chart and numbers available for TMO, I am inclined to favor a long position in the stock.

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO) provides analytical instruments, equipment, software, and services for research, manufacture, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics in the pharmaceutical markets.

Increased mutual fund interest, reasonable P/E at 12, good volume (just under 5 million/day), low debt, and high ranking in the sector make this company worth considering. TMO is trading today at 37.41, this may be a good entry point.
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Cost Averaging SUG

Experiencing a 50% "paper loss" on Southern Union Co. (SUG) over the last 8 months, this may be time to buy more (today at 13.30) and lower the average cost per share while increasing the position.
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Time to Load Up on KBR?

The chart pattern for KBR seems to be holding well. I would add to my position (today at 15.43) on a small pull-back.
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Bad News

Prepare yourselves for a historical market crash, starting today we are going to experience a continuation of the downtrend of previously unseen proportions. Sadly, on July 11, 2007 I wrote in this blog about some rough times ahead; I did not follow my own advise thinking that it would be a short term correction and remained invested. Here we are fifteen months later and facing a worst case scenario.

If you are long in the market, there's nowhere to go, run or hide, we are going to be punished like never before.

A suggestion, take a deep breath, don't panic and ride the storm. At this time, and for the next two to three weeks (after the election), I would not put any more money in the market. There will be buying opportunities later on.

Best of luck to all of you.
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Funny... However, Sad and True

The following link is worth watching. Hopefully, we'll be able to laugh about it three to five years from now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC31Oudc5Bg

Thanks OZ for forwarding it to me.
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KBR Looks Like a Good Prospect

Bottom fishing for value stocks has yielded an interesting prospect, KBR Inc. (KBR).

KBR, Inc. operates as an engineering, construction, and services company supporting energy, petrochemicals, government services, and civil infrastructure sectors worldwide.

Positive factors include:

• Volume at approximately 3.6 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 9.29
• Current price at 66.2% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '06
• Trading today at 15.28

We could be seeing a bottom in the price of this stock

Do Not Panic !

The markets have taken a toll on those of us who are invested. This is not a good time to sell in order to keep the little that is left from our capital. If anything, this deterioration in prices create a buying oportunity in selective issues for those who have the intestinal fortitude to risk more funds.

The cycle we are experiencing will weed-out the weak short-term investors and will continue until most of the willing and unwilling sellers are swept away.

A market bottom may be forming and, in twelve to eighteen months from now, we may be looking at a healthy rebound.
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Cash-in on VPHM

Good returns from Viropharma Inc. (VPHM). On October 16, 2007 VPHM looked attractive at 9.57; today at 13.80 that investment shows a 44% gain in just under 12 months.
I'm happy with these results especially in rough markets. At this time, I don't see much upside potential, time to sell.
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FMCN Displays a Good Chart

Chart patterns seem to attract my attention. FNCM has formed a double bottom with support at 23 and broke above its 50 day moving average on August 15. I consider these actions a positive sign.

Focus Media Holding Limited (FMCN) operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in the People's Republic of China.

Pluses at this time are:

• Volume at approximately 3.26 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 19 (slightly high for my taste)
• Current price at 55.8% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '04

Trading today at 29.59, FMCN may be a stock worth taking a second look.

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Something About ALD

Ready to break above short-term overhead resistance, ALD appears to be primed for a move up.

Allied Capital Corporation (ALD) is a private equity company focusing on buyouts, acquisitions, note purchases, recapitalizations, growth capital, and middle market equity and debt investments.

Interesting aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2.03 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 11
• A dividend of 17.6% (could be cut in the near future, if so we may see a dramatic sell-off)
• Current price at 52.5% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings expected for '08 and '09
• Insider buying since early June
• A .65 dividend coming up on 9/10/08

Closing on Friday at 14.75, I am willing to call ALD a buy.
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Tail Winds at GE?

At a time of erratic behavior in the market, a safe harbor may be the right choice. General Electric Company (GE) appears to be a good value at these levels, selling today at 28.58.

GE operates as a technology, media, and financial services company worldwide. Its infrastructure segment produces jet engines, turboprop and turbo shaft engines, and related replacement parts for use in military and commercial aircraft; wind turbines; aircraft engine derivatives; gas and steam turbines, and generators; drilling and production systems, compressors, turbines, and industrial power generation equipment; diesel-electric locomotives; and water treatment solutions for industrial and municipal water systems. It also offers financial products and services for aviation and energy sectors, as well as engages in gathering, processing, transporting, and marketing natural gas and gas liquids.

On a long term view, GE is well positioned in the wind turbine sector (alternative energy), water treatment and energy efficient aircraft engines.

At about a 31.3% discount from its highs of late September '07, P/E of about 13, a 4.3% dividend, massive average daily volume, and worldwide exposure and recognition; I would not hesitate to take a long position in the company.
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TKC Could be Forming a Base

Turkcell Ilet (TKC) has been losing ground since its highs of late November '07. After a sizeable drop in value, the stock may be hovering around a short-term support at 15.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. engages in establishing and operating Global System for Mobile Communications network in Turkey. The company provides mobile telecommunication services, including mobile voice and data services over its GSM network. Its voice services include wireless telephone services on a prepaid and postpaid basis.

Few of the attractive signs are:

• Volume at approximately 1.35 million average shares/day
• P/E is less than 9
• A dividend of 3.8% (paid yearly)
• Current price at 47% below the 52 week high
• Fund ownership has been increasing during the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '01

Trading today at 15.85, I would consider TKC a buy candidate at around these levels.

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Time to Drop AINV

Apollo Investment Co. (AINV) has turned south, broke below both the 200 and 50 DMA's in one day. The chart does not look so good.

Holding on to a 5.2% return in less than 4 months, I am ready to let go. Time to sell, this morning trading at about 16.40 down a fraction, new signs of weakness.
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Still Bullish on USU

Six months after comments on this blog about USEC Inc. (USU) and experiencing a 27% "paper loss", we may see daylight sometime in the near future.
An article on "The Motley Fool" is like a breath of fresh air after a period of uncertainty.
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/06/12/a-big-upgrade-for-usec.aspx
It will be interesting to find out if a contrarian view proves to be on target for the next move on USU.
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AVT Bounces Back

Avnet Inc. (AVT) appears to have enough bouncing power these days to recover from the April 15th 12% drop. Yesterday's closing price of 30.33 could be viewed as a "dead cat bounce", however, the decisive break above the 50 DMA could signal a recovery.

Avnet Inc. (AVT), together with its subsidiaries, distributes electronic components, enterprise computer and software products, and embedded subsystems primarily in Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Some of the positive aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2 million average shares/day
• Reasonable book value
• P/E of just under 10
• Current price at 32% below the 52 week high
• Good fund ownership, increasing interest for the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '02

This stock could continue its upswing and bring good returns in the next few months.

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Time to unload BEXP

Finally, after two years of weathering painful times, Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) has made a solid turn-around and now we are seeing healthy gains.
BEXP was mentioned on 3/28/06 at 9.20, selling today at 14.30 brings us a 55.43% return in 26 months. I'm content with those returns. Time to cash in some gains.
Patience, again, has been rewarded.
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