The Future of Shopping (by CSCO)

CSCO seems to have a clue. Thank you SIB for sending me this info.

Click on the link below to view:

The Future of Shopping.

The Bottom is Falling, the Bottom is Falling!

It appears that this is the one-two punch that we hoped would not occur.

With no significant support level in sight, I am not sure how long this free fall will continue. One thing is certain, the markets are oversold and there may not be too many sellers left holding securities. Simply put, an oversold market could be recognized when 80% or more of the stocks have dramatically fallen below their 200 day moving average.

Thursday's rout left us numb, Friday's see-saw behavior eliminated those who placed "stop loss" orders and today's trounce could have weeded-out many of the willing and unwilling sellers remaining. Meanwhile, a serious blow has been inflicted to our markets.

Questions remain:
Are we near the next bottom?
Have we seen the worst of it?

After the dust settles, the few left standing will get to fight another day.
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Put Up Your DUK 's

While we are getting hammered in the markets, there is no evidence of a let up. Times like these are when traders start to look for signs of stock market capitulation as a signal marking the unpredictable bottom. Capitulation is associated with routs as investors “give up” on stocks entirely and move into less risky investments. What we would see is panic selling on big volumes while the crowd runs for the exits. Although it is usually brief and somewhat terrifying, true capitulation often means that the sell off has finally run its course, and prices begin to feel for the bottom.

To stick our necks out and go long in this environment requires great intestinal fortitude. With that mindset, I feel that a safer route at this time is to load up on Duke Energy Corp. (DUK).

Over the past twenty months, we contemplated DUK as a good alternative to the miserable returns that banks were offering through their CD's and savings accounts. DUK was mentioned in this blog's watch list on 12/1/09 when it was trading at 16.68; then on 6/30/10 we got serious and saw a buying opportunity at 16.10.

The yield that we receive from DUK at the present time is 5.40%, ex-dividend coming up in less than one week (8/10/11), the stock is trading at 18.25 and holding steady (down .20) in an uncertain climate.
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An Article With Some Merit

Just released, an article by Cody Willard:

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2011/08/04/time-to-buy-stocks/?reflink=yhoof

This young stock analyst has gotten it right several times in the past. I tend to agree with his opinion on the timing of the market. Only time will tell.
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Political Tug of War

While our elected officials in Washington wage a "Political Tug of War" we see our savings and investments deteriorate. The markets react to the fateful statements and predictions we hear from the politicians and in the news.

This is a time when a vast majority of investors and not so wise advisers seek safety outside of the stock market. I say go against the grain.

If we can weather these dismal times and events, we could see an improvement in the markets. Sure, this turn around will take several months and perhaps one to two years to develop but I believe that it is too late to try to save what is left of our investments. Stay put, no time to panic.

My guess is that, at the eleventh hour, there will be a compromise in Capital Hill on the debt. Let's just hope that no long lasting and permanent damage was inflicted to our economy.
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Better Late Than Never, Goldman Sachs Likes CSCO

Today Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month price target on Cisco Systems by 34% to $21. On these news, CSCO jumped almost 3% this morning to 16.15.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43926665?__source=yahoo%7Cheadline%7Cquote%7Ctext%7C&par=yahoo

Welcome news.
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Keeping Track

Past performances and current holdings mentioned in this blog can be viewed and tracked at the following link:

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pF1ZoCuXStgcL_toVzhZuEw&output=html
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Abandon the AVT Ship!

We have held our expectations a bit high for an early choice, Avnet Inc. (AVT).

Caught our eye on 6/5/08 at 30.33.
Resurfaced on our watch list on 10/17/10 for a chance to lower the average cost and buy it at 27.63. Overall, the average cost was 28.98.

Stock action for AVT has been less than desirable. I say, let's drop it and call it even.

Technically, the stock price has deteriorated from the highs on 5/12/11 of 38.00; at this point, trading at 28.91 I see no support level until it reaches 22.50, a possible scenario.
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Does GM have Enough Power and Momentum to Climb the Hill?

After many years of turmoil in the auto industry, emerging from bankruptcy and reissuing new stock in mid November '10; General Motors (GM) could be a buy candidate for the longer term.

These are some of the interesting signs:

1. Early developing chart with a possible upside-down head and shoulders pattern.
2. Recent break up above the 50 dma.
3. Price support at about 28.60, limiting the downside exposure.
4. Excellent average daily volume of about 14.3 million shares.
5. Estimated earnings continuing to climb.
6. Forward P/E ratio is estimated around the low 6's.
7. Number of funds owning GM has increased over the last 3 quarters.
8. Price well under the recent IPO (33.00).
9. A public push to "buy American".

Trading at this time at 30.84, GM is worth keeping an eye on.
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We Have Hit the Jackpot with SUG

During the last three years SUG was mentioned on many occasions in this blog as a buy candidate.
Commented on 5/23/08 at 26.42.
Liked it even better on 1/29/09 to lower the average cost and buy it at 13.30.
Added to choice stocks on 7/25/09 at 19.80.
Featured on the watch list on 8/19/09 at 19.04.
Again included in the watch list on 8/22/09 at 20.85.

We have had several opportunities to load up on SUG. For those who took advantage of these observations, kudos to you!


Today, Energy Transfer Equity announced that it is buying Southern Union Co. (SUG) for 33.00 per share... JACKPOT!!!

Trading at this time for 33.15 on the news, I am glad to cash in on a long awaited result.
This transaction represents a 25.5% return from the original comment price, not including an average yield of about 2.5%.
Had those of you who followed this security bought into weakness, you may have realized a total profit of nearly 75% over the past three years while the S&P 500 experienced an 8% loss, nothing to sneeze at.
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PWER Keeps on Drawing Attention

This morning we received another write-up about PWER, this time from seekingalpha.com:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/269969-short-squeeze-ideas-9-highly-shorted-cash-rich-stocks-with-institutional-buying?source=yahoo

Professional stock researchers and investors are taking positions in this stock.
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More Positive Comments on PWER

Today's article on "thestreet.com":

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11118748/5/5-stocks-setting-up-to-break-out.html

Two weeks after the comment on this blog (and a 7.19% gain), another article confirms our views.

We'll see in the coming weeks if we still stand firm on our convictions.
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More Comments About PWER

This morning I came across this article from stockpickr.com, it talks about the posibility of a short squeeze.
We could be on to something with PWER.

http://stockpickr.com/roberto-p/portfolio/earnings-short-squeeze-plays-05-02-2011/

We'll see after the earnings are released.
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It is Not Lights Out for PWER

PWER has been trading below its 50 and 200 day moving averages since 2/4/11, thus missing the ride up that the market has enjoyed. During this period, the technology sector has been lagging and oil prices have skyrocketed.
Again, eyes are turning to alternative energy. A cycle we have witnessed in the past.

Power-One, Inc. (PWER) designs, manufactures, and markets power conversion and power management solutions for the renewable energy, communications infrastructure, and other high technology markets.

PWER's chart pattern begins to look attractive and if, in the next week or so, it breaks and closes above the 50 dma at 8.27 (8.21 at the close of 4/28/11), it could take us to the 10.50 level within 3 months.

Now, this prospect is somewhat risky since there are sizeable short positions in the stock. As a contrarian investor, I am expecting a two stage surge in the stock price and a "short squeeze".

With a volume of 4.7 million shares in daily trading , a chart pattern at a crossroads and the connection to the alternative energy sector, I would consider PWER a candidate to place some bets with risk capital.
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CEPH Receives a Hostile Bid

Had my eye on this one (CEPH) since November '09. Kept it in my watch list into February '10. Pulled the trigger on November 24, '10 at 64.10.
Today, CEPH received a hostile bid from Valeant for 73.00 per share. With a trading price of about 75.20, it is a good time to exit.

Sure, hostile takeovers may attract other suitors and higher bids... but then, the deal could fall apart.

Sudden spikes concern me and, with gains of 17.30% in four months, I would not hesitate to cash in.
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An Update on CSCO

Today's article from thestreet.com reinforces a view published in this blog about CSCO on 2/10/11:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11053420/1/cisco-the-case-for-buying-the-stock-now.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Closing at 17.39 yesterday, this may be a good time to own or double up on this giant and consider it as a long term investment.
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Do Not Sell Into a Panic!

History has proven that panic selling is not a wise move.
The markets are off about 2.5% this morning, for those who have the intestinal fortitude, this may be the time go long in the market.
Read this article just published:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/it-rarely-pays-to-sell-into-a-panic-2011-03-15?siteid=yhoof

Stay calm and take advantage of the investment opportunities out there.
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Stocks to Watch - March 7, '11

Watch list for March 7, 2011

BX------------18.18
STO-----------27.67

BX is into asset management; I still like STO.

We'll be checking the performance of these picks in a few weeks.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - Oct 17, '10"

It has been a while, four and one half months to be exact, since I wrote about a stock watch list.
Unpredictable turn of events led to choppy markets and a more difficult environment for a stock picker.

For the period of 10/17/10 thru 3/4/11, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------10/17/10------------------3/4/11

AVT------------------27.63-------------------34.18 (up 23.71%)
STO------------------22.08-------------------27.67 (up 25.32%)
WATG----------------10.07--------------------6.85 (down 31.98%)

The outcome was not so good, WATG has been on a slide and was the only pick that kept the average returns down, bad choice.
Our average gain for this period was 5.68% while the S&P 500 rose about 12.32% in the same stretch of time.

We'll sharpen up our pencils and try to do better.
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Ooooops! CSCO Takes a Dive

For the third time in six months, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) has gapped down in a significant way coupled with huge trading volumes.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry worldwide.

Again, some Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock, citing concerns about higher competition and lower margins.

My belief is that the selling is overdone and that CSCO is not going away. Trading this morning at 19.17, closing in on a short-term support at 19.00; this could be an oportunity to get in at a good level.

Obviously, CSCO has shown to be very volatile and out of favor; with a contrarian view I am inclined to call this one a buy candidate.
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