What's Next for KRO ?

Since November 6, 2011 we have seen KRO go from 22.67 to 24.84 (a 9.5% gain, not including dividends, in less than five months). The stock is now trading above the 50 and 200 day moving averages, the chart shows a nice base and slow upward momentum.

Within the next two weeks, I'd like to see the closing price to be above 25.55 which is the next resistance level, thus climbing to new eight month highs.

Very heavy short positions exist countered by long term insider buying. I am taking the insider's view and staying long on this stock.
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Have a comment, thought or question on a stock?

Feel free to bring up any findings or opinions, I'm open to suggestions and willing to look into any opportunities. Brainstorming is a way to learn from others and expand our views. Changing markets require constant adjustments.

Since most of us are not "experts" in the field, let's communicate in basic terms.

I would like to hear from you, just click on the "comments" link below and contact me. Our communication will be published in this blog or, if you so choose, it will not be posted.
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EBIX Gave Us a Good Run

Back on November 2, 2011 we saw a buying opportunity in EBIX (trading at 15.53).
After a nice run, a seesaw stock price behavior and an uncertain direction, I am pulling the plug.
Trading today at 21.85, the investment turned out a 40.7% gain in a period of just over four months; happy to cash in.
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EBIX Performs as Predicted

In less than one month, EBIX has moved from 15.53 (see this blog 11/2/11) to over 21.00, that's a 35% return in in my book.

I am tempted to hold on to the stock provided it closes any day this week above 20.95, thus getting near a seven month high. Any significant rise in volume combined with an increase in price could trigger further buying to cover massive short positions.

We'll wait and see.
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We Have Hit the Jackpot with SUG

During the last three years SUG was mentioned on many occasions in this blog as a buy candidate.
Commented on 5/23/08 at 26.42.
Liked it even better on 1/29/09 to lower the average cost and buy it at 13.30.
Added to choice stocks on 7/25/09 at 19.80.
Featured on the watch list on 8/19/09 at 19.04.
Again included in the watch list on 8/22/09 at 20.85.

We have had several opportunities to load up on SUG. For those who took advantage of these observations, kudos to you!


Today, Energy Transfer Equity announced that it is buying Southern Union Co. (SUG) for 33.00 per share... JACKPOT!!!

Trading at this time for 33.15 on the news, I am glad to cash in on a long awaited result.
This transaction represents a 25.5% return from the original comment price, not including an average yield of about 2.5%.
Had those of you who followed this security bought into weakness, you may have realized a total profit of nearly 75% over the past three years while the S&P 500 experienced an 8% loss, nothing to sneeze at.
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Ooooops! CSCO Takes a Dive

For the third time in six months, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) has gapped down in a significant way coupled with huge trading volumes.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry worldwide.

Again, some Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock, citing concerns about higher competition and lower margins.

My belief is that the selling is overdone and that CSCO is not going away. Trading this morning at 19.17, closing in on a short-term support at 19.00; this could be an oportunity to get in at a good level.

Obviously, CSCO has shown to be very volatile and out of favor; with a contrarian view I am inclined to call this one a buy candidate.
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TMO , Still a Favorite

Even though TMO has gained about 9.4% in just seven weeks and nearing its 52 week high, it remains one of my favorite investments.

Highlighted in this blog on November 22 '10, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Co. (TMO) has performed in a very consistent manner. In my opinion, this one has some steam left and it can conceivably reach the low 60's in the next three months.

Last traded at 56.37, TMO should be considered an outperform/buy candidate.
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Grab the Dividend from ARCC

In late August '08 ARCC (then at 12.36) looked like a good prospect for profit. Since that time and until March '09, we experienced an uncontrollable downfall. The banking debacle and the dismal stock market behavior eroded the original investment, a good dividend and the chances for any possible gains.

We stuck to our guns, weathered the storm and now at 16.64, we have gained an annualized return of about 23.9% (including dividends).

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a private equity firm specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies.

Pluses for ARCC are:

•Acceptable chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and possible support at 16.50, the mid term rising bottom's line.
•A desirable average daily volume of over 1.4 million shares.
•A very nice dividend yield of 8.5%, ex-dividend date is only 13 days away.
•An 11.17 forward P/E ratio.

I find ARCC a good place to park some funds.

My thanks to Paul V. for bringing this security up to my attention in early April '10. Paul you were right on target.
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BCE is Still Sending Good Signals

I wrote about BCE about one year ago (see 11/17/09 blog). Since then, we have seen a gain of 31.6% (not including a 5.7% dividend), a very respectable return. On three ocasions BCE was highlighted in this blog's "stocks to Watch" list.

An updated view of BCE's attractive signs are:

•Fine chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and signifficant support at 32, the long term rising bottom's line.
•A good average daily volume of over 705,000 shares.
•A very nice dividend yield of 5.2%, ex-dividend date is only 14 days away.
•Forward P/E ratio is at 11.48.

At this point, I am inclined to increase a long position in BCE (trading this morning at 33.83).
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Being Patient With Covidien

We noticed Covidien (COV) at 36.05 on June 13, 2009. Since then, it had a good run and hovered at the 52.00 level between January 20 and April 20 of this year. Not bad, if you chose to sell; but we are not going to talk about "what could have been". If you are still holding on to the stock, all you have to show is about 1.9% in dividends plus a 5.1% gain in stock value, that is still alright in this day and age.

Yesterday COV's stock price touched the 50 day moving average at 38.27 and closing just below it at 37.90, I expect the move in the next two days to be up and break above that line, if so, we can see a sharp increase in price in the following week or two. Good time to buy again or increase our long position in Covidien.
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Bouncing Back

It is still early but we may have been right on our call of August 12, 2010. The S&P500 index held its ground at around the 1050 level (closed at 1047.22 on 8/26/10) and since then, in nearly four weeks, it has gained about 6% from those lows.

Technically, I could see a continuation of the uptrend for at least the next quarter. This may be a good time to pick up some bargains.
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...and the beat goes on

Yesterday, we experienced a tremendous beating of most of the markets and individual stocks. This morning, we expect that the downtrend to continue in a significant manner, at least for the early part of the trading day.

If the S&P 500 Index closes today below the 50 day moving average at 1087, then the downward momentum will continue with the next support level at 1023, that would represent an additional 6% drop in the index.

Should the index retreat reach near the 1050 level and bounce back in the next two weeks, then we can view the chart as having formed a reverse "head and shoulders pattern". In that case, it may be a good time to go bottom fishing for some bargains. These are the times when we position our funds for future profits.
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BINGO! AKAM Gives Us Something to Smile About

On good earnings report, Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) has gained about 15% in today's early trades.
Back on 2/25/09 I liked AKAM at 18.23, today we see a huge pop and trading at 38.25 (a 110% return in 14 months).
My rule is: too high + too fast = cash-in.
I say take profits and look for other oportunities.
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Short Term Returns From UNH

Bought on October 28, 2009 at 26.11, UNH is up 4.04% for the day (at 29.66). Over a period of 6 weeks we realized a gain of 13.60%.
I say take these short term returns and cash in the profits.
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Time to Move Out of KBR

Written up on October 7, 2008 and again on January 29, 2009 with prices at 15.28 and 15.43 respectively, KBR Inc. had a tremendous run and after yesterday's drop of 1.41 (down 5.87%) we may have heard a wake up call to take profits.

This retreat clearly marked a break down below the 50 day moving average with a weak support at 21.50.

After gaining approximately 47.25% over a period of less than one year and selling for 22.61,i can happily call it a day and search for other opportunities.
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Let's Take Profits on ATW

Too high, too fast is my view on the recent price move for Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

On 5/26/09 the stock appeared as an attractive buy candidate then trading at 23.53;
today, after a fine run, it is my feeling that taking profits may be a prudent move.

With a price of 40.06 we have gained 70% in almost 5 months. I'd say that is a very nice return.
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AONE is Priced

Expected to be priced at 10.50-11.00, A123 Systems (AONE) went public today with a pre-trading value of 13.50... it never traded that low. The lowest price the stock saw was 16.56 and has not looked back in about one hour of trading, soaring up to 19.70 with incredible momentum.
Those who got in before trading begun have made a sizable gain. Not bad for a company that has yet to show a profit in eight years.
I am not inclined to chase a mad crowd, but then I also chose not to buy Google (GOOG) when it was issued in the $80's.
Oh well!
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Drop TKC, Time to Move on

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) was featured in this blog on 7/18/08 (at 15.85)and again on 8/4/09 (at 16.60); since then,the stock has hovered around these prices and is now showing what could be a "head and shoulders" chart pattern. I am inclined to say that, in the near future, the stock is headed down.

For the period of time we held TKC, we collected an anualized dividend of about 4.7%,
and see a profit of 4.79%. Selling today at 16.61, it may be time to move out of this position.
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Something Worth Reading

Once in a while, we come across an article or commentary that, in the midst of a lot of gibberish makes some kind of sense and hopefully allows us to step back and make our own financial decisions, often better than the ones we get from the so-called experts.
This article from "The Motley Fool" is right on target:


http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/09/06/why-you-shouldnt-listen-to-jim-cramer.aspx
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Watch List for the Week of 8/31/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/31/09:
(Expecting a decline on Monday and then we will check these stocks and price them on Tuesday or Wednesday)
Okay, as of 9/1/09, let's keep an eye on:

EZPW 13.37
KBR 22.65
PFE 16.70
SEPR 18.15



Recap for the week of 8/24/09:

on 8/24-------------on 8/28

ATW 29.78 --------28.67(down 3.73%)
SEPR 18.35 -------18.59(up 1.31%)
SUG 20.85 --------20.06(down 3.79%)

That was not a good week.
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