Ooooops! CSCO Takes a Dive

For the third time in six months, Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) has gapped down in a significant way coupled with huge trading volumes.

Cisco Systems, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells Internet protocol (IP)-based networking and other products related to the communications and information technology industry worldwide.

Again, some Wall Street analysts downgraded the stock, citing concerns about higher competition and lower margins.

My belief is that the selling is overdone and that CSCO is not going away. Trading this morning at 19.17, closing in on a short-term support at 19.00; this could be an oportunity to get in at a good level.

Obviously, CSCO has shown to be very volatile and out of favor; with a contrarian view I am inclined to call this one a buy candidate.
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The "Dead Cat Bounce" Theory

Over the years, traders have been searching for consistent behavior in stock prices.
One of the theories is the "Dead Cat Bounce" syndrome.

My take on the "DCB" goes like this: If a stock goes down drastically (10-20%), over a short period of time (1-3 days), with extremely heavy volume (300%+ the average daily volume); chances are that within the mext 6 months or so, the stock price may bounce back to retrace to a level halfway up the gap... That did not sound right. Did it?

For example: a stock closes on a given day at 40.00 with an average daily volume of 500 thousand shares/day. Next trading day, it goes down to 34.00 (off 6.00 or -15%) with a volume of 2 million shares on bad news (such as disappointing earnings); it is possible that, in the mext 3-6 months, the price could fill the gap to its halfway point (approx. 37.00).

Now, this is only a theory and a very risky way to invest. The risk to reward ratio are somewhat commensurate.

The bad news that drive the stock price down cannot be so negative that would have a long term effect on the stock valuation. In fact, it could become a bargain if there is an over-reaction by the sellers and the news are viewed as short term.

Having followed this theory over a period of several years, I have gone one step further and "honed out" this approach. The parameters are: two gaps down (10% or more each) within a period of four months, on heavy volume (3x the average daily volume), then consider buying the stock within one week after the second drop. The company should show consistent earnings and trade a minimum of 300 thousand shares on the average.

Two examples are: CSCO and SMCI (take a look at the one year chart)

It is good to remember that most of the capital at risk could very well disappear on additional bad news or a market downturn.
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TMO , Still a Favorite

Even though TMO has gained about 9.4% in just seven weeks and nearing its 52 week high, it remains one of my favorite investments.

Highlighted in this blog on November 22 '10, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. Co. (TMO) has performed in a very consistent manner. In my opinion, this one has some steam left and it can conceivably reach the low 60's in the next three months.

Last traded at 56.37, TMO should be considered an outperform/buy candidate.
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STO = Something to Own

STO came up in my search for undervalued stock with upside potential in mid October. Over the last eighteen months the stock price has found support at the 18.50 level. During the past two trading sessions it has crossed above both the 50 dma and the 200 dma.

Statoil ASA (STO) engages in the exploration, production, transportation, refining, and marketing of petroleum and petroleum-derived products. The company involves in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas in Norway and internationally, as well as extraction of natural gas liquids. It also transports and markets natural gas and natural gas products; and operates 2,000 full-service stations in Scandinavia, Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia.

Positive aspects are:

1. Early developing chart pattern. Recent break up above the 50 dma and 200 dma.
2. Price support at 18.50, limiting the downside exposure.
3. Good average daily volume of about 1.7 million shares.
4. Estimated earnings are on the rise.
5. Forward P/E ratio is at about 9.
6. Dividend is at 3.6%.
7. Number of funds owning STO has increased over the last 4 quarters.

With yesterday's closing price at 21.88, STO may be worth owning.
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Grab the Dividend from ARCC

In late August '08 ARCC (then at 12.36) looked like a good prospect for profit. Since that time and until March '09, we experienced an uncontrollable downfall. The banking debacle and the dismal stock market behavior eroded the original investment, a good dividend and the chances for any possible gains.

We stuck to our guns, weathered the storm and now at 16.64, we have gained an annualized return of about 23.9% (including dividends).

Ares Capital Corporation (ARCC) is a private equity firm specializing in acquisition, recapitalization, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies.

Pluses for ARCC are:

•Acceptable chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and possible support at 16.50, the mid term rising bottom's line.
•A desirable average daily volume of over 1.4 million shares.
•A very nice dividend yield of 8.5%, ex-dividend date is only 13 days away.
•An 11.17 forward P/E ratio.

I find ARCC a good place to park some funds.

My thanks to Paul V. for bringing this security up to my attention in early April '10. Paul you were right on target.
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BCE is Still Sending Good Signals

I wrote about BCE about one year ago (see 11/17/09 blog). Since then, we have seen a gain of 31.6% (not including a 5.7% dividend), a very respectable return. On three ocasions BCE was highlighted in this blog's "stocks to Watch" list.

An updated view of BCE's attractive signs are:

•Fine chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and signifficant support at 32, the long term rising bottom's line.
•A good average daily volume of over 705,000 shares.
•A very nice dividend yield of 5.2%, ex-dividend date is only 14 days away.
•Forward P/E ratio is at 11.48.

At this point, I am inclined to increase a long position in BCE (trading this morning at 33.83).
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TMO is on a Steady Pace

On a day when many securities retreated, TMO went against the grain and kept above it's rising bottom's line.

Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc Co (TMO) provides analytical instruments, equipment, reagents and consumables, software, and services for research, manufacture, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics. In layman's terms, a company in the healthcare industry which provides medical instruments and supplies.

Barring any unforeseen major turn in the market, TMO (now trading at 51.53) is poised to reach the 55 level and beyond within the next six weeks.

Positive aspects of TMO:

1. Chart pattern shows a tendency for the stock price to stay above the rising bottom's line.
2. Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of August 31 '10.
3. Good average daily volume of about 2.9 million shares.
4. Earnings per share have increased during the past several years.
5. Forward P/E ratio is at about 12.88.
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HRS Rises as a Top Pick

HRS has risen to near the top of my list in a few weeks. With higher lows over the past four and one half months, crossing above both the 50 dma and the 200 dma and maintaining a rising bottoms line, this choice is worth a longer look.

Harris Corporation (HRS), together with its subsidiaries, operates as a communications and information technology company that serves government and commercial markets worldwide.

Some of the good points:

1. Early developing chart pattern. Recent break up above the 50 dma and 200 dma.
2. Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of July 1 '10.
3. Good average daily volume of about 950,000 shares.
4. Earnings per share have increased during the last eight years.
5. Forward P/E ratio is at about 10.
6. Dividend increased to 2.2%.


With Friday's closing price at 46.18, HRS could be poised for a smooth ride.
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WATG Makes the Cut

WATG has been in my short list from late April. Since then, in early May, the stock value took a 40% tumble (from about 12 to 7). Finally, in the past five months, it found a base at around 8. Meanwhile, it maintained a range above the 200 dma and on October 11, it rose above the 50 dma in a definite manner. In my view, these are positive technical signals.

Wonder Auto Technology, Inc.(WATG), in the Chinese auto parts sector, through its subsidiaries, engages in the design, development, manufacture, and marketing of electrical parts, suspension products, and engine components.

Heavy short positions may be forced to cover if the uptrend continues, thus catapulting the stock price.

Positives are:

•Good chart pattern. Recent break up above the 50 dma.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of late August '10.
•Good average daily volume of about 520,000 shares.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 11.


Closing yesterday at 10.40, WATG appears to be an attractive prospect.
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Primed for Picking: CEPH

Cephalon's Inc. (CEPH) stock price has shown a consistent improvement over the past six weeks, in addition, it has formed a solid base spanning three months at the 55 level.

Cephalon, Inc., is a biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of products for central nervous system, inflammatory disease, pain, and oncology therapeutic areas.

Positives are:

•Good chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of late August '10.
•Excellent average daily volume of about 1.2 million shares.
•Increased fund interest since June '10.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 9.

Trading at 64.10, CEPH seems to be a good prospect.
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Stocks to Watch - October 17, 2010

Watch list for October 17, 2010

AVT-----------27.63
STO-----------22.08
WATG--------10.07

AVT distributes electronics, STO is a Norwegian oil and gas company, WATG is a Chinese auto parts manufacturer.

We'll be checking the performance of these picks in a few weeks.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - Sept 13, '10"

For the period of 9/13/10 thru 10/15/10, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------9/13/10----------------10/15/10

BCE------------------31.85-------------------33.57 (up 5.40%)
FMCN----------------20.36-------------------24.00 (up 17.88%)
NVS------------------54.42-------------------59.02 (up 8.45%)

The outcome was very good, our average gain for this period was 10.58% while the S&P 500 gained about 4.84% during the same interval of time.
We are back on track.
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Being Patient With Covidien

We noticed Covidien (COV) at 36.05 on June 13, 2009. Since then, it had a good run and hovered at the 52.00 level between January 20 and April 20 of this year. Not bad, if you chose to sell; but we are not going to talk about "what could have been". If you are still holding on to the stock, all you have to show is about 1.9% in dividends plus a 5.1% gain in stock value, that is still alright in this day and age.

Yesterday COV's stock price touched the 50 day moving average at 38.27 and closing just below it at 37.90, I expect the move in the next two days to be up and break above that line, if so, we can see a sharp increase in price in the following week or two. Good time to buy again or increase our long position in Covidien.
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Stocks to Watch - September 13, 2010

Watch list for September 13, 2010

BCE--------31.85
FMCN------20.36
NVS--------54.42

Rather than issuing a new list at the begining of each month, I think it is better to let market conditions dictate the timing in which we pick the stocks which show a hint of a positive outlook.

Still like NVS, a foreign drug company; BCE, a Canadian telecom and FMCN, a Chinese advertising firm.

We'll be checking the performance of these picks in a few weeks.
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Bouncing Back

It is still early but we may have been right on our call of August 12, 2010. The S&P500 index held its ground at around the 1050 level (closed at 1047.22 on 8/26/10) and since then, in nearly four weeks, it has gained about 6% from those lows.

Technically, I could see a continuation of the uptrend for at least the next quarter. This may be a good time to pick up some bargains.
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...and the beat goes on

Yesterday, we experienced a tremendous beating of most of the markets and individual stocks. This morning, we expect that the downtrend to continue in a significant manner, at least for the early part of the trading day.

If the S&P 500 Index closes today below the 50 day moving average at 1087, then the downward momentum will continue with the next support level at 1023, that would represent an additional 6% drop in the index.

Should the index retreat reach near the 1050 level and bounce back in the next two weeks, then we can view the chart as having formed a reverse "head and shoulders pattern". In that case, it may be a good time to go bottom fishing for some bargains. These are the times when we position our funds for future profits.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - July '10"

A bit late with the results but here they go:

For the part of the month of July, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------7/11/10---------------7/31/10

NLY-----------------18.15-----------------17.40 (down 4.31%)
NVS-----------------49.55-----------------48.74 (down 1.66%)

The outcome was not good, our average loss for this period was 2.99% while the S&P 500 gained about 2.19% from 7/11/10 thru 7/31/10.
Back to the drawing board.
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Stocks to Watch - July '10

Watch list for July '10

NLY--------18.15
NVS--------49.55

We issued this list a bit late this month, still like NLY and included a foreign drug company. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of July.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - June '10"

For the month of June, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------6/1/10---------------6/30/10

NLY-----------------16.96-----------------17.15 (up 1.12%)
QSFT----------------19.35----------------18.04 (down 9.32%)

The outcome was dismal, our average loss for this month was 4.10% while the S&P 500 declined about 5.39% in June, thus closing a painful Q2.
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Searching for a Safe Haven in DUK

Our stock holdings have been taking a serious beating as of late. We wonder when the markets will find a consolidation base and reverse the present course. We have experienced the worst Q2 in a while.

For those of us that are trying to weather the storm, and have kept some cash on the sidelines, this may be a good time to look at a relatively safer investment in Duke Energy Corp. (DUK).

DUK is selling this morning at 16.10, dividend yield is at 6.0%, heavy average daily volume of near 10 million shares.

This utility company could be a good place to park funds and get a return that is more attractive than cd's and savings accounts. I don't expect DUK to appreciate greatly since the stock price fluctuations are limited and slow.
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Stocks to Watch - June '10

Watch list for June '10

NLY--------16.96
QSFT------19.35

This month we have a financial and a technology company. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of June.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - May '10"

For the month of May, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------5/1/10---------------5/31/10

AYR-----------------12.01-----------------9.85 (down 17.99%)
NOC-----------------67.83----------------60.49 (down 10.82%)

Results were not memorable, our average loss for this month was 14.40% compared to the S&P 500 which declined about 9.18% in May, not a good show for those of us who remained long in the market.
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Stocks to Watch - May '10

Watch list for May '10

AYR-------12.01
NOC-------67.83

This month we have an aircraft leasing and an aerospace/defense company. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of May.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - April '10"

For the month of April, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------4/1/10---------------4/30/10

AAN----------------22.53----------------22.57 (up .16%)
AIZ-----------------34.89----------------36.43 (up 4.41%)
RCII----------------23.87----------------25.82 (up 8.17%)


Our average gain for this month was 4.25% compared to the S&P 500 which saw a 1.48% increase in April.
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BINGO! AKAM Gives Us Something to Smile About

On good earnings report, Akamai Technologies, Inc. (AKAM) has gained about 15% in today's early trades.
Back on 2/25/09 I liked AKAM at 18.23, today we see a huge pop and trading at 38.25 (a 110% return in 14 months).
My rule is: too high + too fast = cash-in.
I say take profits and look for other oportunities.
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USU on the Upswing

Increasing my long position on USU.
Chart and future prospects look promising, trading this morning at 6.43.
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Stocks to Watch - April '10

Watch list for April '10

AAN------22.53 (after 3/2 split on 4/16/10)
AIZ-------34.89
RCII------23.87

This month we have a retailer, an insurance company and a rental company. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of April.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - March '10"

For the month of March, this was our watch list and outcome:


Stock Symbol-------3/1/10---------------3/31/10

DECK----------------120.20--------------138.00 (up 14.81%)
ENDP----------------22.75----------------23.69 (up 4.13%)
RTN-----------------56.24----------------57.12 (up 1.56%)


Our average gain for this month was 6.83% compared to the S&P 500 which saw a 5.88% increase in March.
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Stocks to Watch - March '10

Watch list for March '10

DECK----120.20
ENDP-----22.75
RTN------56.24

We have chosen a mix of sectors for this month. We'll be checking the performance of these picks by the end of March.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - February '10"

For the month of February, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol-------2/2/10---------------2/26/10

AMGN----------------58.72----------------56.61 (down 3.59%)
CEPH----------------64.80----------------68.67 (up 5.97%)
GENZ----------------54.19----------------57.20 (up 5.55%)


Our average gain for this month was 2.64% compared to the S&P 500 which saw a 2.85% increase in February.
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Stocks to Watch - February '10

Watch list for February '10

AMGN----58.72
CEPH----64.80
GENZ----54.19

It appears that biotech may be the flavor of the month. We'll check the performance of these companies in about four weeks.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - January '10"

For the month of January, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol-------1/1/10---------------1/31/10

BCE-----------------27.61----------------25.75 (down 7.22%)
CEPH----------------62.42----------------63.84 (up 2.27%)
NLY-----------------17.35----------------17.38 (up .17%)


The average loss for this month was 1.59% compared to the S&P 500 which deteriorated 3.84% for January.
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Stocks to Watch - January '10

Watch list for January '10

BCE-----27.61
CEPH---62.42
NLY-----17.35

We'll check the performance of these companies at the end of the month.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - December '09"

For the month of December, we chose to follow these stocks :


Stock Symbol------12/1/09--------------12/31/09

BCE-----------------26.50----------------27.61 (up 4.19%)
DUK-----------------16.68----------------17.21 (up 3.18%)
RTN-----------------51.53----------------51.52 (down .02%)


The average return for this month was 2.45% compared to the S&P 500 which gained 1.78% for December. Happy with the results.
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A Dividend Play: NLY

Having kept an eye on NLY for about four years, I think this may be a good time to seriously consider owning this security.

Annaly Capital Management, Inc.(NLY), is a real estate investment trust, which owns, manages, and finances a portfolio of investment securities.

Positives are:

•Nice chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the lows of early March '09.
•Excellent average daily volume of over 8.2 million shares.
•Exceptional dividend yield of 15.2%.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 7.


Trading this morning at 18.52, I look for a continuation of the uptrend.
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Short Term Returns From UNH

Bought on October 28, 2009 at 26.11, UNH is up 4.04% for the day (at 29.66). Over a period of 6 weeks we realized a gain of 13.60%.
I say take these short term returns and cash in the profits.
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Stocks to Watch - December '09

Watch List for December '09

BCE-----26.50
DUK-----16.68
RTN-----51.53

We'll check the performance of these companies at the end of the month.
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Results for "Stocks to Watch - November '09"

For the month of November, these stocks appeared to be poised for a good performance:


Stock Symbol------11/1/09--------------11/30/09

CEPH----------------54.58----------------54.95 (up .68%)
NOC-----------------50.13----------------54.80 (up 9.32%)
UNH-----------------25.95----------------28.67 (up 10.48%)


The average return for this month was 6.83%, not bad when you consider that the S&P 500 gained 5.74% for the same period of time. In any case, a very good month at the market.
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Good Signals From BCE

With many stocks hitting 52 week highs, and after taking a pounding a year ago, BCE appears to be lagging in its recovery.

BCE Inc. (BCE) provides communication services to residential and business customers in Canada. Its services include Bell Home Phone local and long distance services, Bell Mobility and Solo Mobile wireless, high-speed Bell Internet, Bell TV direct-to-home satellite and VDSL television, IP-broadband services, and information and communications technology services.

Positives are:

•Good chart pattern.
•Consistent uptrend and rebound from the November 26 '08 drop.
•A fair average daily volume of over 647,000 shares.
•A nice dividend yield of 5.7%.
•Forward P/E ratio is at 12.

Trading this morning at 25.84, I am betting that the trend continues and that the stock price will get back to the mid 30's level by the first quarter of 2010.
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Stocks to Watch - November '09

Watch List for November '09

CEPH----54.58
NOC-----50.13
UNH-----25.95

These stocks should outperform the market provided the latest sell off is a temporary correction.
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UNH - A Health Care Play

Trying to figure out the future of health care in the U.S. is beyond me. I am not keen to the idea of politicians trying to fix anything, regardless of party affiliation. Hopefully, something good will come out of the proposals now on the table.

Meanwhile, many of the insurers, pharmas and health care facilities have been beaten down for the past two years. There is a chance that in the future their recovery will materialize.

Unitedhealth Group (UNH) is showing signs of life. UNH provides health care services in the United States.

Positives are:

•Fair chart pattern.
•Support at the 23.50 level.
•Average daily volume of over 12.5 million shares.
•Healthy fund ownership.
•Forward P/E ratio is at about 8.

Trading this morning at 26.11, I expect UNH to bounce up and cross the 50 dma (now at 27) in the next few weeks, if so, the next resistance level would be at 30.
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Watch List Will be Published Monthly

Due to the amount of time necessary to research and publish the "Weekly Watch List" and the short term view, I have revised the schedule so it can be included in this blog on a monthly basis thus showing a more realistic and accurate result.


Recap for the week of 10/16/09:

on 10/16------------------on 10/23

AKAM 21.80-------------21.50 (down 1.40%)
ATW 39.29---------------38.81 (down 1.24%)
EZPW 14.07---------------14.06 (down .01%)

New list will appear around the beginning of each month.
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Time to Move Out of KBR

Written up on October 7, 2008 and again on January 29, 2009 with prices at 15.28 and 15.43 respectively, KBR Inc. had a tremendous run and after yesterday's drop of 1.41 (down 5.87%) we may have heard a wake up call to take profits.

This retreat clearly marked a break down below the 50 day moving average with a weak support at 21.50.

After gaining approximately 47.25% over a period of less than one year and selling for 22.61,i can happily call it a day and search for other opportunities.
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Going Nowhere at GE

Although Genereal Electric Co. (GE) has made a considerable move up from the March lows, I cannot see great prospects for its future.
Mentioned in this blog on 7/25/08 at 28.58, we are backing out of this position and taking a 47% loss selling it at the price of 15.20, we lick our wounds and move on.
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Let's Take Profits on ATW

Too high, too fast is my view on the recent price move for Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

On 5/26/09 the stock appeared as an attractive buy candidate then trading at 23.53;
today, after a fine run, it is my feeling that taking profits may be a prudent move.

With a price of 40.06 we have gained 70% in almost 5 months. I'd say that is a very nice return.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/19/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/19/09:

AKAM-----21.80
ATW------39.29 (Going strong)
EZPW-----14.07 (May resume uptrend)


Recap for the week of 10/12/09:

on 10/12------------------on 10/16

ATW 37.70---------------39.29 (up 4.22%) A winner as of late.
EZPW 14.34---------------14.07 (down 1.88%) Slight pullback.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/12/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/12/09:

ATW------37.70 (Still a favorite)
EZPW-----14.34 (Ditto)


Recap for the week of 10/5/09:

on 10/6------------------on 10/9

ATW 34.55---------------37.70 (up 9.12%) Jackpot!
EZPW 13.57---------------14.34 (up 5.67%) Nice return.
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Watch List for the Week of 10/5/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 10/5/09 (as of 10/6/09):

ATW------34.55
EZPW-----13.57


Recap for the week of 9/28/09:

on 9/28----------------on 10/5

DOX 26.40---------------25.89 (down 1.93%) Not so good.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/28/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stock to watch for the week of 9/28/09:

DOX-----26.40


Recap for the week of 9/21/09:

on 9/21----------------on 9/25

DOX 26.65---------------26.40 (down 1%) Still like it.
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AONE is Priced

Expected to be priced at 10.50-11.00, A123 Systems (AONE) went public today with a pre-trading value of 13.50... it never traded that low. The lowest price the stock saw was 16.56 and has not looked back in about one hour of trading, soaring up to 19.70 with incredible momentum.
Those who got in before trading begun have made a sizable gain. Not bad for a company that has yet to show a profit in eight years.
I am not inclined to chase a mad crowd, but then I also chose not to buy Google (GOOG) when it was issued in the $80's.
Oh well!
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An IPO to Watch, A123 (AONE)

Today we await the pricing of an initial public offering: A123 Systems (AONE).
The expected price range is between 10.50 and 11.00.

A123 (AONE) designs, develops, manufactures and sells advanced, rechargeable lithium-ion batteries and battery systems.

Financial backers for this company include: the U.S. Government, General Electric (GE), Motorola (MOT), Qualcom (QCOM), and AES (AES).

Chances are, this will be the hottest IPO for '09.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/21/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stock to watch for the week of 9/21/09:

DOX-----26.65


Recap for the week of 9/14/09:

on 9/15----------------on 9/18

AOB 5.44---------------5.43 (down .18%)
ATW 32.10-------------33.27 (up 3.64%) continued a fine run
DOX 25.88--------------26.65 (up 2.98%) solid

Looking for a dull trading week.
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Drop TKC, Time to Move on

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri AS (TKC) was featured in this blog on 7/18/08 (at 15.85)and again on 8/4/09 (at 16.60); since then,the stock has hovered around these prices and is now showing what could be a "head and shoulders" chart pattern. I am inclined to say that, in the near future, the stock is headed down.

For the period of time we held TKC, we collected an anualized dividend of about 4.7%,
and see a profit of 4.79%. Selling today at 16.61, it may be time to move out of this position.
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Watch List for the Week of 9/14/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 9/14/09:
Let's hold off until Tuesday or Wednesday to price them. Expecting a significant drop early Monday as the market opens.

Okay, let's give it a try, as of 9/15/09 the picks are:

AOB-----5.44
ATW----32.10
DOX-----25.88


Recap for the week of 9/8/09:

on 9/8----------------on 9/11

ATW 28.32-------------32.35 (up 14.23%) nice run
COV 39.60-------------41.87 (up 5.73%) no too shabby
DOX 24.91-------------26.11 (up 4.82%) another good one

Great four day week.
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Dumped SLXP a Bit Too Soon

Impatience took the best of me. On August 18 '09 I chose to let go of Salix Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (SLXP) at 12.93 after a very dull and fruitless 20 months.
Sold SLPX one month too soon. Today after good news on clinical trials the stock shot up 6.77 (+50.6%) to 20.15, an incredible run... Bummers!
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Something Worth Reading

Once in a while, we come across an article or commentary that, in the midst of a lot of gibberish makes some kind of sense and hopefully allows us to step back and make our own financial decisions, often better than the ones we get from the so-called experts.
This article from "The Motley Fool" is right on target:


http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2009/09/06/why-you-shouldnt-listen-to-jim-cramer.aspx
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Watch List for the Week of 9/8/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 9/8/09:

ATW 28.32
COV 39.60
DOX 24.91


Recap for the week of 8/31/09:

on 9/1-------------on 9/4

EZPW 13.37---------12.63 (down 5.53%)
KBR 22.65-----------21.81 (down 3.71%)
PFE 16.70-----------16.39 (down 1.86%)
SEPR 18.15----------22.82 (up 25.73%) Luckyyyyy!!!

One pick (SEPR) saved our week.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/31/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/31/09:
(Expecting a decline on Monday and then we will check these stocks and price them on Tuesday or Wednesday)
Okay, as of 9/1/09, let's keep an eye on:

EZPW 13.37
KBR 22.65
PFE 16.70
SEPR 18.15



Recap for the week of 8/24/09:

on 8/24-------------on 8/28

ATW 29.78 --------28.67(down 3.73%)
SEPR 18.35 -------18.59(up 1.31%)
SUG 20.85 --------20.06(down 3.79%)

That was not a good week.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/24/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/24/09 (same as last week):

ATW 29.78
SEPR 18.35
SUG 20.85


Recap for the week of 8/17/09:

on 8/19------------on 8/21

ATW 28.02-----------29.78 (up 6.28%)
SEPR 17.79-----------18.35 (up 3.15%)
SUG 19.04-----------20.85 (up 9.51%)

It's been a good week, we avoided a devastating Monday.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/17/09 (as of 8/19/09)

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/17/09 (as of the morning of 8/19/09):

ATW 28.02
SEPR 17.79
SUG 19.04

Have prosperous trades for the remainder of this week.
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Time to Drop SLXP

On 12/12/07 I wrote about Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (SLXP) purchased at 11.89; since then, we have seen nothing but red. Held on to it for over 20 months. I think it is time to let it go.
Trading today at 12.93 (an 8.75% gain) may be a good time to unload.
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Expect a Drop Today - Last Week's Recap

Due to the significant drops in the Asian markets overnight, I am delaying the weekly watch list for at least one day. As a result, expect major losses today in the U.S. from the fallout.

Recap for the week of 8/10/09:
on 8/10------------on 8/14

AKAM 19.46---------18.01 (down 7.45%)
ATW 28.96----------28.08 (down 3.04%)
COV 38.16----------39.09 (up 2.44%)
KBR 22.42----------22.86 (up 1.96)

Hang on for dear life.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/10/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/10/09:

AKAM 19.46
ATW 28.96
COV 38.16
KBR 22.42

Recap for the week of 8/3/09:

on 8/3------------on 8/7

COV 37.81---------38.16 (up .93%)
ATW 28.84---------28.96 (up .42%)
GE 13.40----------14.70 (up 9.70%)
PFE 15.93---------15.96 (up .19%)


Have a profitable trading week.
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About AKAM

Insiders are putting their money where their mouths are.
After disappointing earnings report and a 20% day drop in stock value (on 7/29/09), several directors, CEO and other officers are investing about $3.3 million of their own money in Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) as reported this morning in the following article:

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10564083/1/three-insiders-buy-33m-worth-of-akamai.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

That action may be a signal to increase a position in this company.
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More Comments About TKC

On July 18, 2008 I wrote about Turkcell Ilet (TKC), since then we have seen a gain of 4.3% (in addition to the 4.9% dividend). I would say it has given us a decent return considering the market behavior over the past year.

Motley Fool just posted an article about TKC:

http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2009/08/04/5-star-stocks-poised-to-pop-turkcell.aspx

It appears that this stock has legs and may continue to realize gains in the near foreseeable future.
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Watch List for the Week of 8/3/09 - Last Week's Recap

Stocks to watch for the week of 8/3/09:

COV 37.81
ATW 28.84
GE 13.40
PFE 15.93

Stocks mentioned for the week of 7/27/09:

on 7/27------------on 7/31

ATW 28.94--------28.84 (down .35%)
SUG 19.80---------19.38 (down 2.12%)
KBR 19.88----------21.19 (up 6.59%)
AMGN 60.92-------62.31 (up 2.28%)

Have a profitable trading week.
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Next Week Choices

Starting today, and continuing each week, I will post stock symbols that appear to have a good chance for nice returns. The following week, a comment will recap the performance of those stocks... This is only a test.

Stocks to watch for the week of 7/27/09:

ATW 28.94
SUG 19.80
KBR 19.88
AMGN 60.92

Good luck on your investments.
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Covidien is on the Move

After being removed from the S&P 500 and relocating its headquarters to Ireland, Covidien (COV) has not missed a step on its way up to nearly four month highs.

Covidien PLC (COV) develops, manufactures, and sells health care products for use in clinical and home settings worldwide. COV has four divisions: Medical Devices, Imaging Solutions, Pharmaceutical Products, and Medical Supplies.

Positives are:

• Good chart pattern.
• Strong support above the 50 dma.
• Average daily volume of over 6.8 million shares.
• Number of funds owning the stock has increased for the past four quarters.
• Forward P/E ratio is at 11.9

Closing on Friday at 36.05, I expect Covidien to maintain the trend and cross the 200 dma (now at 38.94) in the near future, thus boosting the stock price for the next push.

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Missed the Move on TMO

On 5/15/09 I followed a false signal on TMO and sold it at a slight loss, since then the stock has moved up and gained 6.75... bad call,bummer!
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ATW Could Perform

With oil prices rising in the last few weeks, a possible beneficiary of this action could be Atwood Oceanics, Inc.

Atwood Oceanics, Inc. (ATW) focuses in the offshore drilling and completion of oil and gas wells worldwide. The company also offers support, management, and consulting services in its field.

Stock price for ATW is directly related to the price of crude.

Attractive aspects for this company are:

• Good chart pattern, strong support and a five month base at 13.
• Decisively crossed the 50 dma and holding above the 200 dma.
• Good volume at 1.4 million shares/day.
• Low P/E at 5.6
• Low debt.
• Large fund ownership.

ATW seems to be a fine investment at 23.53 provided the price of oil continues to climb.

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TMO Shows Weakness

Latest numbers and chart pattern for Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO) have made me revise the assessment for the company's near future performance.

Insider selling, price sinking today below its 50 dma and strong overhead resistance, resulted in my choice to exit a long position in the stock.

Bought at about 37.41 on 2/18/09, selling today at 35.04, near a 6.5% loss in 3 months.

I would say it's time to get out and search for better prospects.
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Good Returns From ENS

Brought up in this blog on March 24 of this year, ENS was selling at the time for 12.46 and looking like a good prospect, we just saw a run up in the stock price.
Not wanting to be piggish about it, I am very pleased to cash in on a quick profit. Trading now at 18.26, this represents approximately a 47% return in just 5 weeks.
I say, take the money and run.
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CMED Has Potential

Medical device manufacturers seem to be bouncing back from their recent lows. China Medical Technologies, Inc. (CMED) shows good signs for a near to longer term upswing.

CMED is a medical device company engaging in the development, manufacture and sale of medical devices and supplies in China.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new three month high.
• Sustained break above the 50 day moving average.
• Adequate average daily volume (509,000).
• Sizable management ownership.

CMED trades today at 19.81 and looks like a good prospect for future profits.

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ENS - An Infrastructure Play

Along with other choices such as GVA and KBR, Enersys seems to be poised to continue its upward trend.

Enersys (ENS) manufactures, markets, and distributes industrial batteries and related products. It also offers related direct current power products, including chargers, electronic power equipment, and various battery accessories. Its motive power batteries are used for industrial forklift trucks, mining equipment, railroad equipment and by material handling equipment dealers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as well as by end users, such as manufacturers, distributors, warehouse operators, retailers, airports, mine operators, and railroads.

Positive signs are:

• Reaching a new four month high.
• Strong break above the 50 day moving average.
• Increasing average daily volume.
• Heavy fund ownership.
• Low P/E (approx 6.23).

ENS is trading this morning at about 12.46 and could reach the twelve month estimated target of 15.

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Dividends Slashed

Prepare yourselves for a barrage of dividend cuts.
In order to cut costs in these difficult times, many companies will take advantage and announce a dividend cut or totally suspend the seemingly attractive quarterly returns.
As the stocks price declined, the dividends that remained unchanged have become disproportionately high yields compared to those of savings accounts, cd's or bonds.
When these changes occur, a new wave of selling will take place, led by investor disappointment.
After the bulk of dividend reduction has taken place, we can begin to search for bargains and better than average yields.
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AKAM Defies Gravity

While new lows are the norm for many stocks as of late, Akamai Technologies Inc. (AKAM) seems to be moving in the opposite direction.

Akamai Technologies, Inc. provides services for accelerating the delivery of content and applications over the Internet.

After a huge decline on 7/31/08 (approx. 25% loss) on ten times the average daily volume, the stock has formed a solid base at about 12 over a period of five months. Since 1/22/09 the price has been rising consistently, today reaching a new twenty week high, an anomaly in this environment.

AKAM is trading today at 18.23, up .55 and bucking the trend.

Some appealing factors for AKAM are:

• Good volume (4.5 million avg./day)
• Insider buying in December '08
• Steady price rise above the 50 day moving average
• It is one of the top companies in the sector
• Sustained earnings estimate for '09
• Adequate forward P/E of 10.37

I would consider AKAM at this time a good buy candidate.

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A Look at TMO

Fewer and fewer stocks look promising these days when the markets take wild swings and punish most companies under the sun. Has the investing community taken down some solid stocks? According to the chart and numbers available for TMO, I am inclined to favor a long position in the stock.

Thermo Fisher Scientific, Inc. (TMO) provides analytical instruments, equipment, software, and services for research, manufacture, analysis, discovery, and diagnostics in the pharmaceutical markets.

Increased mutual fund interest, reasonable P/E at 12, good volume (just under 5 million/day), low debt, and high ranking in the sector make this company worth considering. TMO is trading today at 37.41, this may be a good entry point.
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Cost Averaging SUG

Experiencing a 50% "paper loss" on Southern Union Co. (SUG) over the last 8 months, this may be time to buy more (today at 13.30) and lower the average cost per share while increasing the position.
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Time to Load Up on KBR?

The chart pattern for KBR seems to be holding well. I would add to my position (today at 15.43) on a small pull-back.
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Bad News

Prepare yourselves for a historical market crash, starting today we are going to experience a continuation of the downtrend of previously unseen proportions. Sadly, on July 11, 2007 I wrote in this blog about some rough times ahead; I did not follow my own advise thinking that it would be a short term correction and remained invested. Here we are fifteen months later and facing a worst case scenario.

If you are long in the market, there's nowhere to go, run or hide, we are going to be punished like never before.

A suggestion, take a deep breath, don't panic and ride the storm. At this time, and for the next two to three weeks (after the election), I would not put any more money in the market. There will be buying opportunities later on.

Best of luck to all of you.
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Funny... However, Sad and True

The following link is worth watching. Hopefully, we'll be able to laugh about it three to five years from now.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC31Oudc5Bg

Thanks OZ for forwarding it to me.
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KBR Looks Like a Good Prospect

Bottom fishing for value stocks has yielded an interesting prospect, KBR Inc. (KBR).

KBR, Inc. operates as an engineering, construction, and services company supporting energy, petrochemicals, government services, and civil infrastructure sectors worldwide.

Positive factors include:

• Volume at approximately 3.6 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 9.29
• Current price at 66.2% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '06
• Trading today at 15.28

We could be seeing a bottom in the price of this stock

Do Not Panic !

The markets have taken a toll on those of us who are invested. This is not a good time to sell in order to keep the little that is left from our capital. If anything, this deterioration in prices create a buying oportunity in selective issues for those who have the intestinal fortitude to risk more funds.

The cycle we are experiencing will weed-out the weak short-term investors and will continue until most of the willing and unwilling sellers are swept away.

A market bottom may be forming and, in twelve to eighteen months from now, we may be looking at a healthy rebound.
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Cash-in on VPHM

Good returns from Viropharma Inc. (VPHM). On October 16, 2007 VPHM looked attractive at 9.57; today at 13.80 that investment shows a 44% gain in just under 12 months.
I'm happy with these results especially in rough markets. At this time, I don't see much upside potential, time to sell.
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FMCN Displays a Good Chart

Chart patterns seem to attract my attention. FNCM has formed a double bottom with support at 23 and broke above its 50 day moving average on August 15. I consider these actions a positive sign.

Focus Media Holding Limited (FMCN) operates out-of-home advertising network using audiovisual digital displays in the People's Republic of China.

Pluses at this time are:

• Volume at approximately 3.26 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 19 (slightly high for my taste)
• Current price at 55.8% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings increase since '04

Trading today at 29.59, FMCN may be a stock worth taking a second look.

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Something About ALD

Ready to break above short-term overhead resistance, ALD appears to be primed for a move up.

Allied Capital Corporation (ALD) is a private equity company focusing on buyouts, acquisitions, note purchases, recapitalizations, growth capital, and middle market equity and debt investments.

Interesting aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2.03 million average shares/day
• P/E is at 11
• A dividend of 17.6% (could be cut in the near future, if so we may see a dramatic sell-off)
• Current price at 52.5% below the 52 week high
• Steady earnings expected for '08 and '09
• Insider buying since early June
• A .65 dividend coming up on 9/10/08

Closing on Friday at 14.75, I am willing to call ALD a buy.
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Tail Winds at GE?

At a time of erratic behavior in the market, a safe harbor may be the right choice. General Electric Company (GE) appears to be a good value at these levels, selling today at 28.58.

GE operates as a technology, media, and financial services company worldwide. Its infrastructure segment produces jet engines, turboprop and turbo shaft engines, and related replacement parts for use in military and commercial aircraft; wind turbines; aircraft engine derivatives; gas and steam turbines, and generators; drilling and production systems, compressors, turbines, and industrial power generation equipment; diesel-electric locomotives; and water treatment solutions for industrial and municipal water systems. It also offers financial products and services for aviation and energy sectors, as well as engages in gathering, processing, transporting, and marketing natural gas and gas liquids.

On a long term view, GE is well positioned in the wind turbine sector (alternative energy), water treatment and energy efficient aircraft engines.

At about a 31.3% discount from its highs of late September '07, P/E of about 13, a 4.3% dividend, massive average daily volume, and worldwide exposure and recognition; I would not hesitate to take a long position in the company.
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TKC Could be Forming a Base

Turkcell Ilet (TKC) has been losing ground since its highs of late November '07. After a sizeable drop in value, the stock may be hovering around a short-term support at 15.

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. engages in establishing and operating Global System for Mobile Communications network in Turkey. The company provides mobile telecommunication services, including mobile voice and data services over its GSM network. Its voice services include wireless telephone services on a prepaid and postpaid basis.

Few of the attractive signs are:

• Volume at approximately 1.35 million average shares/day
• P/E is less than 9
• A dividend of 3.8% (paid yearly)
• Current price at 47% below the 52 week high
• Fund ownership has been increasing during the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '01

Trading today at 15.85, I would consider TKC a buy candidate at around these levels.

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Time to Drop AINV

Apollo Investment Co. (AINV) has turned south, broke below both the 200 and 50 DMA's in one day. The chart does not look so good.

Holding on to a 5.2% return in less than 4 months, I am ready to let go. Time to sell, this morning trading at about 16.40 down a fraction, new signs of weakness.
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Still Bullish on USU

Six months after comments on this blog about USEC Inc. (USU) and experiencing a 27% "paper loss", we may see daylight sometime in the near future.
An article on "The Motley Fool" is like a breath of fresh air after a period of uncertainty.
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2008/06/12/a-big-upgrade-for-usec.aspx
It will be interesting to find out if a contrarian view proves to be on target for the next move on USU.
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AVT Bounces Back

Avnet Inc. (AVT) appears to have enough bouncing power these days to recover from the April 15th 12% drop. Yesterday's closing price of 30.33 could be viewed as a "dead cat bounce", however, the decisive break above the 50 DMA could signal a recovery.

Avnet Inc. (AVT), together with its subsidiaries, distributes electronic components, enterprise computer and software products, and embedded subsystems primarily in Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, and New Zealand.

Some of the positive aspects are:

• Volume at approximately 2 million average shares/day
• Reasonable book value
• P/E of just under 10
• Current price at 32% below the 52 week high
• Good fund ownership, increasing interest for the past 4 quarters
• Earnings have risen consistently since '02

This stock could continue its upswing and bring good returns in the next few months.

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Time to unload BEXP

Finally, after two years of weathering painful times, Brigham Exploration Co. (BEXP) has made a solid turn-around and now we are seeing healthy gains.
BEXP was mentioned on 3/28/06 at 9.20, selling today at 14.30 brings us a 55.43% return in 26 months. I'm content with those returns. Time to cash in some gains.
Patience, again, has been rewarded.
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Charting SUG

Southern Union Co. (SUG) has been rising from its lows of mid March and is forming a desirable chart pattern.

SUG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the gathering, processing, transportation, storage, and distribution of natural gas in the United States.

The chart shows the stock price breaking above the 50 DMA (4/25/08), holding well with a fairly strong move towards the 200 DMA and a the long term declining tops line.

Some of the positive aspects are:

• Volume at 889,000 average shares/day
• Yield of 2.3%
• Reasonable book value
• P/E of just under 15

SUG, trading this morning at 26.42, could possibly add some sweetness to a portfolio.

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EDS Being Bought by HP?

Hewett-Packard Co. has offered to buy Electronic Data Systems Corp. for 25.00 per share in cash. That transaction is expected to be completed by the end of the year.
Under those conditions, we would realize a 10% return in about 12 months from the original price of 22.75 mentioned on October 10, 2007 and a 30.4% gain over the updated comment on May 3, 2008 (10 days ago) when the stock was trading at 19.17.

Fortunate for those of us who were patient enough to hold on, not panic and apply a cost averaging approach during some tough times.
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Is it Time for KBE?

On October 4, 2007, I wrote about Exchange Traded Funds (ETF's). The main focus was on KBE, an ETF investing in large banks. Since then the stock value has dropped 25%, a choice that proved to be much too early for a near term profitable outcome. I have been hanging in there knowing that the negativity in the sector would, in time, reverse its course.

I would tend to think that the bottom is near and expect most banks not only survive but thrive in years to come.

It is not the time to give up, better to wait and add to a long position in order to bring the average cost down and participate in an upswing. Meanwhile, a 6% dividend should keep us in the game and with a price of 40.31 it can be a good place to reload.

An interesting article with an in depth look at KBE can be read at:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/76495-investing-in-banks-the-kbw-large-bank-index?source=yahoo

For those of you who have patiently waited out this deteriorating situation, expect better days ahead.
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Is GVA Ready for a Bounce?

Always searching for value, I like to consider beaten up stocks as mid to long term investments.
Granite Construction, Inc. (GVA) appears to be promising adequate returns in the coming months.

GVA with its subsidiaries, operates as a heavy civil contractor and a construction materials producer for public and private sector clients in the U. S. Some of its projects include construction and improvement of streets, roads, highways, and bridges.

GVA is selling today at about 33.10, 55.6% below its 52 week high; an average daily volume of 888,000 shares, a P/E of 12, insider buying over the last 6 weeks, and may be ready to break above the 50 day moving average (now at 34).

Time to focus on companies that would benefit from an infrastructure upgrade surge which many states, cities and municipalities are in dire need.

Another Big Bang

With bloody noses from yesterday's action in the stock markets, we'd better be ready to face the next round of attacks from the bears.

Having the financial sector in total disarray, the diminishing value of the dollar, world markets taking hits and a recession well on it's way; I can't see any factors that would make the U.S. markets turn around any time soon. The worst case scenario would be a downward spiral, if that turns out to be, then we haven't much of a clue where the bottom could be.

Good luck, don't despair, keep the powder dry.

An Eye on AINV

Apollo Investment Corporation (AINV) could, in the near future, survive and make a turn-around despite the present financial crisis.

AINV focus on investing in the following industries: business services, cable television, chemicals, consumer products, direct marketing, distribution, energy and utilities, financial services, healthcare, manufacturing, media, publishing, retail and transportation.

The positives are: price holding just above the 50 day moving average (dma), trades over 1.3 million shares/day, sells at a 35% discount from its 52 week high, insider buying, yields 12.9% dividends, P/E at 7 and a chart that shows a possible bottom.

The negatives are: financials continuing in a decline and/or a break below the 50 dma.

AINV is selling at about 15.61 and is worth keeping an eye on.

A Look at LHO

LaSalle Hotel Properties (LHO) has been near the top of my list since the beginning of the year, it's time to take a serious look at the oportunity that this company may offer.

LaSalle Hotel Properties, is a real estate investment trust (REIT), which engages in the purchase, ownership, and lease of upscale and luxury hotels located in convention, resort, and urban business markets in the U. S.

LHO is selling today at about 29.62, trades an average of 633,000 shares daily, offers an attractive yield of 7.20%, the number of funds holding positions has increased over the last 3 quarters, has a low book value, the chart may indicate a bottom at around 27, and earnings have increased since 2003.

Expect a sustained rise in price if it breaks above the 50 day moving average at around 31.